ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[cycloneye]

LOL.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1156914747914297344

[jlauderdal]

LOL.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1156914747914297344

wishcasters get their heart broken more often than not, always best to manage expectations accordingly

[jconsor]

Like the 0z run, 6z ECMWF (can't post images) keeps 96L weak. 850 mb low is barely closed off at 90 hours (end of run). However, three interesting trends at 90 hours that point toward slightly better conditions for development down the road vs. 0Z run:

1) Slightly less dry air intrusion into core on 6z run
2) 96L's center is about 100 miles further east - i.e forward speed is a little slower than 0z run
3) Upper low within the TUTT shifted about 150 miles further west, i.e due north of Virgin Islands/eastern PR instead of north of Anguilla. This puts 96L in a better position to be favorable influenced by diffluence on the SE side of TUTT for a longer time period.

[NDG]

The one thing to keep in mind is that if indeed it does not develop or does develop much when it reaches the Lesser Antilles then chances of threatening the US get higher, if it stays away from tracking over the greater Antilles. IMO.

[SFLcane]

Like the 0z run, 6z ECMWF (can't post images) keeps 96L weak. 850 mb low is barely closed off at 90 hours (end of run). However, three interesting trends at 90 hours that point toward slightly better conditions for development down the road vs. 0Z run:

1) Slightly less dry air intrusion into core on 6z run
2) 96L's center is about 100 miles further east - i.e forward speed is a little slower than 0z run
3) Upper low within the TUTT shifted about 150 miles further west, i.e due north of Virgin Islands/eastern PR instead of north of Anguilla. This puts 96L in a better position to be favorable influenced by diffluence on the SE side of TUTT for a longer time period.

Hey jconsor,

Agree on all your points but why are the models not showing development in the SW Atlantic then?

[Aric Dunn]

Like the 0z run, 6z ECMWF (can't post images) keeps 96L weak. 850 mb low is barely closed off at 90 hours (end of run). However, three interesting trends at 90 hours that point toward slightly better conditions for development down the road vs. 0Z run:

1) Slightly less dry air intrusion into core on 6z run
2) 96L's center is about 100 miles further east - i.e forward speed is a little slower than 0z run
3) Upper low within the TUTT shifted about 150 miles further west, i.e due north of Virgin Islands/eastern PR instead of north of Anguilla. This puts 96L in a better position to be favorable influenced by diffluence on the SE side of TUTT for a longer time period.

Here you go1000mb .... very closed at 90 hours.

[SFLcane]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

[Evil Jeremy]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

... Did the ecmwf expand to four cycles a day?

[ava_ati]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

... Did the ecmwf expand to four cycles a day?

They have the higher resolution version of the ECMWF that runs @6, & 18 it is in 3 hour increments but only goes out 90 hours

I don't know if you can get it for free or not, they have it in my subscription

[TheStormExpert]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

... Did the ecmwf expand to four cycles a day?

Also are those two extra cycles run with the same parameters as the 00z and 12z are?

[LarryWx]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

Just to clarify, the 6Z Euro also keeps it weak similar to the 0Z Euro (1013-14 mb) at the end of its run (Hour 90). What jconsor was doing was speculating what might have been shown had the run gone out further. Also, the 6Z EPS is similarly unimpressive (actually even less impressive) to the 0Z EPS at the end of its run (144 hours). It has only one sub 1000 mb member at hour 144 (300 miles NE of PR moving NW) out of 50+ members compared to 4 on the 0Z at hour 150 and 3 on yesterday’s 12Z at hour 162.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS with no development once again, next!

[LarryWx]

So 06z EURO does develop 96L once again...Interesting

... Did the ecmwf expand to four cycles a day?

Also are those two extra cycles run with the same parameters as the 00z and 12z are?

Yes, but they go out only 90 hours (operational) and 144 (ensemble).

[CyclonicFury]

Well the model support dropped like a rock after that 00z EURO run.

[Aric Dunn]

198 hours the vorticity is cruising across hispaniola and into central cuba lol

Not going to see any development that way....

[AutoPenalti]

Funny enough that once this was declared an invest models just said No.

[Aric Dunn]

Funny enough that once this was declared an invest models just said No.

Could be the input parameters from the invest. Before the invest maybe it was more open ranged data... and now its defined with a size and strict location. Who knows. Some piece of information was included and muddled everything up more.

Though this is also nothing new.. few more runs and we will have a better idea.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: the most bearish of at least the last 4 runs. Suggests little threat to anyone.

[Aric Dunn]

Well 12z euro is back to development.. who ever would thought ..

Well briefly..

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF performs a magic trick and makes 96L and the wave behind it disappear