ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[USTropics]

Ridge is further west and amplified, no shortwave trough in the GOM on this run, digging EC trough though:

[bamajammer4eva]

Trend since 12Z Bermuda High shifted west and 96L now going for the shredder.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS takes 96L through all of the Bahamas on a general NW after exiting Hispaniola, before making a larger turn to about 50ish miles off the coast of SE FL (216 hrs)

[bamajammer4eva]

Stalls 252-276

[USTropics]

GFS really wants to make this landfall in FL, moving SW towards FL:

[Hurricaneman]

Stalls 252-276

https://i.imgur.com/9xmeei5.gif

In this run it looks like it would end up in the GOM

[Hurricaneman]

Also if it misses Hispaniola we may have big problems for the Bahamas and even Florida

[USTropics]

Stalls, loops, and get's shove back west on the 00z GFS:

[bamajammer4eva]

FWIW Legacy GFS takes this across S FL and up to near Tampa by 240

[Hurricaneman]

Stalls, loops, and get's shove back west on the 00z GFS:

https://i.ibb.co/HGKzytG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh258-306.gif

Track reminds me of Jeanne in 2004 on the GFS, let’s hope this goes over Hispaniola to knock the stuffing out of this or this could potentially be worse for Florida than even Jeanne was

[Hurricaneman]

FWIW Legacy GFS takes this across S FL and up to near Tampa by 240

That scenario is very possible, let’s wait and see what the Euro shows, might have to keep vigilant in first the Caribbean then the Bahamas and Florida and the Carolinas

[sma10]

GFS "legacy" is as reliable as ever, taking the system directly over Miami, as usual

[ScottNAtlanta]

Stalls, loops, and get's shove back west on the 00z GFS:

https://i.ibb.co/HGKzytG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh258-306.gif

Track reminds me of Jeanne in 2004 on the GFS, let’s hope this goes over Hispaniola to knock the stuffing out of this or this could potentially be worse for Florida than even Jeanne was

Just a reminder that when you say something like that, please recall Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Hispaniola.
Nobody wants a hurricane on their doorstep, but we also shouldn't wish it on anyone else.

[Hurricaneman]

Stalls, loops, and get's shove back west on the 00z GFS:

https://i.ibb.co/HGKzytG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh258-306.gif

Track reminds me of Jeanne in 2004 on the GFS, let’s hope this goes over Hispaniola to knock the stuffing out of this or this could potentially be worse for Florida than even Jeanne was

Just a reminder that when you say something like that, please recall Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Hispaniola.
Nobody wants a hurricane on their doorstep, but we also shouldn't wish it on anyone else.

I admit it would be a tragedy if repeated

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zEuro looks like it doesn’t even develop this. Either it will be closer to this solution and it doesn’t develop or it will be closer to the GFS and be a real threat to most of the Antilles, Bahamas and the SEUS coast

[Hammy]

The 0zEuro looks like it doesn’t even develop this. Either it will be closer to this solution and it doesn’t develop or it will be closer to the GFS and be a real threat to most of the Antilles, Bahamas and the SEUS coast

I'm still expecting this to be the outcome. The few times it's shown anything it's been very weak, and the GFS has a habit of overblowing pretty much every wave that comes along. I still remember the long-tracking Cat 5 it forecast Erika to become in 2015.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 0zEuro looks like it doesn’t even develop this. Either it will be closer to this solution and it doesn’t develop or it will be closer to the GFS and be a real threat to most of the Antilles, Bahamas and the SEUS coast

I'm still expecting this to be the outcome. The few times it's shown anything it's been very weak, and the GFS has a habit of overblowing pretty much every wave that comes along. I still remember the long-tracking Cat 5 it forecast Erika to become in 2015.

the nhc must be seeing something different then.

[TheStormExpert]

Well 00z Euro drops development completely, and the 00z GEFS Ensembles are well east of the operational 00z GFS run OTS. Talk about some good agreement!

[jlauderdal]

GFS "legacy" is as reliable as ever, taking the system directly over Miami, as usual

it's been very consistent doing that for years, south florida would be destroyed by now if the gfs legacy had its way

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to think the Euro might be onto something with that TUTT forecasted to shear 96L.