WPAC: KROSA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

95W.INVEST

[mrbagyo]

95W INVEST 190804 0000 14.8N 146.0E WPAC 15 0

[dexterlabio]

Must be the system the models are developing east of TD10W/future Lekima. Both GFS and Euro agree on a strong storm out of this, but this might have implications on the track and intensity of 10W.

[1900hurricane]

Based on ASCAT data, the vort max appears to be pretty near Saipan.

[euro6208]

Been raining pretty hard the last few days. I knew something was up.

EURO develops this into a bonifide 974mb typhoon as it tracks northwest away from the Marianas.

[euro6208]

928 mb peak

[euro6208]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 18.1N 144.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.08.2019 18.1N 144.2E MODERATE

00UTC 06.08.2019 19.0N 143.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.08.2019 20.2N 142.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.08.2019 21.9N 141.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2019 23.1N 140.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.08.2019 24.0N 141.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.08.2019 24.4N 142.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.08.2019 24.5N 142.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.08.2019 24.0N 143.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.08.2019 23.5N 143.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

95W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 04, 2019:

Location: 15.2°N 146.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[Hayabusa]

Interesting complex situation developing, the models seem to be developing 95W and possibly a strong one. I doubt it though, although Lekima and 95W are roughly 1600km apart I can't discount a binary iteraction happening and Lekima absorbs 95W. So until reality agrees with the models, really doubt the model forecast of 95W. Even models have trouble pinpointing Lekima.

Would love 95W to get further away from Lekima and develop on its own, two possible strong typhoons comeback? Yes.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 041700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041700Z-050600ZAUG2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZAUG2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZAUG2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041109Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041109Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE ELONGATED LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 KT WINDS MORE THAN 100
NM TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (32 TO 33 CELCIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON 95W WITH ALL SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 72 HOURS. OF NOTE, SOME MODELS SHOW 95W
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT BEING ABSORBED INTO
10W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

If Lekima does the dance of death with Taiwan as guidance is beginning to suggest, that may afford 95W an opportunity to become more intense. Everything is low confidence right now though. Multiple TCs from the same monsoon trough and weak steering doesn't exactly inspire forecast confidence.

[1900hurricane]

Now a JMA TD.

WWJP27 RJTD 050000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 34N
173E 36N 155E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 58N 142E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 44N 169E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 32N 175E NE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 117E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 33N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 51N 157E NE 10 KT.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 980 HPA AT 30.5N 136.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA AT 18.5N 129.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[mrbagyo]

Now a JMA TD.

https://i.imgur.com/MZbXvVU.png

WWJP27 RJTD 050000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 34N
173E 36N 155E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 58N 142E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 44N 169E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 32N 175E NE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 117E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 33N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 51N 157E NE 10 KT.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 980 HPA AT 30.5N 136.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA AT 18.5N 129.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Interesting to note that JMA notices that LPA in SCS. Future 96W?

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAUG2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZAUG2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZAUG2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY
245 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH NO
CLEARLY DISCERNABLE CENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLC. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN A 042341Z ASCAT PASS AND 050326Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (5-15KTS)
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C), DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS MARGINAL DUE TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST. DIVERGENCE AND SPEED
SHEAR BOTH PICK UP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND ARE SUSTAINING THE
CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY PREDICTING
DEVELOPMENT OF 95W WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTHWARD. UKMO IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, CALLING FOR
95W TO BE RE-ABSORBED INTO TS 10W RATHER THAN DEVELOPING 95W
INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

TD warning issued

TD
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 5 August 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 5 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E146°10' (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35' (18.6°)
E143°20' (143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

[euro6208]

Guam has received already 5 to 8 inches of rain from the associated monsoon trough. Lovely. More rain in the forecast. Its downloading right now.

[euro6208]

A tropical disturbance...Invest 95W...was located southeast of Pagan
this afternoon. Scatterometer data showed it was near 15N146E.
Numerous models show the possibility of this feature becoming a
tropical cyclone in a day or two. Some models wait to intensify it
after it has passed the islands of the northern CNMI. At this time
no development is occurring but it bears watching.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 051330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 144.8E TO 21.8N 140.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY
283 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY IMPROVING, WITH A BROADER REGION
OF LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (29-31C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SOON AFTER AS IT TAKES A
MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061330Z.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

JTWC renumbered to 11W.

Code: Select all

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 144.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 144.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.1N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.2N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.3N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.2N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.9N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 24.3N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 26.0N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 144.0E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
91 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to TS Krosa

TS 1910 (Krosa)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 6 August 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 August>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N18°30' (18.5°)
E142°50' (142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°25' (20.4°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°30' (22.5°)
E141°30' (141.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°40' (23.7°)
E141°50' (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°55' (24.9°)
E142°00' (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°25' (27.4°)
E141°50' (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 600 km (325 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 750 km (400 NM)