ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

I have not being paying attention to this invest with Dorian as my big interest so my question is I see no activity for many hours in this thread. What happened?

Dorian

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form today or Tuesday while the
system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern
United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North
Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

I have not being paying attention to this invest with Dorian as my big interest so my question is I see no activity for many hours in this thread. What happened?

Models barely develop it now.

[Kazmit]

Why are the chances still 80% on this?

[TheAustinMan]

Why are the chances still 80% on this?

It's been a bit lumbering with its organization, but generally enjoys some model support for organization throughout today and tomorrow. It'll probably look much better when it separates from the front tomorrow. Part of those chances are based on a possibility of subtropical cyclone development, which can spawn quite the ugly duckling as we've often seen historically.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Why are the chances still 80% on this?

They are probably more focused on Dorian at the moment. Still a chance to develop but probably not 80%

[northjaxpro]

98L or whatever becomes of this feature will still play a very key factor in the whole picture regarding Dorian.

The BIG question will be how much of a weakness it will leave in its wake once it develops and moves out.before ridgjng builds back across the SW North Atantic basin before the end of the week?

How much farther poleward Dorian will get before turning back w/ w/nw? Lots to watch!!

[zhukm29]

Recent ASCAT pass:

[northjaxpro]

Looking at that ASCAT, We have a closed low level circulation. No doubt to me this is a TD. even likely Erin to be to the point.

[Hammy]

Looking at that ASCAT, We have a closed low level circulation. No doubt to me this is a TD. even likely Erin to be to the point.

Probably waiting to make sure convection persists.

[zhukm29]

New ASCAT pass showing a closed low with 35kt winds. Erin may be classifiable now.

[northjaxpro]

New ASCAT pass showing a closed low with 35kt winds. Erin may be classifiable now.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds86.png

I agree with this from my earlier post on the ASCAT pass on the previous page

[zhukm29]

I concur. 98L surely took its time to develop, but it has finally made it to the point of being named. Now it's just a waiting game to see whether the NHC pulls the trigger.

[DioBrando]

I concur. 98L surely took its time to develop, but it has finally made it to the point of being named. Now it's just a waiting game to see whether the NHC pulls the trigger.

Wait what it's confirmed to be Erin???

[AnnularCane]

I concur. 98L surely took its time to develop, but it has finally made it to the point of being named. Now it's just a waiting game to see whether the NHC pulls the trigger.

Wait what it's confirmed to be Erin???

Still 98L as of now.

[zhukm29]

It hasn't been named yet. Although it could be named since the ASCAT pass supports an upgrade, the NHC is likely waiting for convection to persist before giving 98L an official name. They did update the chances to 90/90 at 2 PM, so the upgrade is likely to come tonight or tomorrow in my opinion.

[DioBrando]

aight

[Hurricaneman]

It hasn't been named yet. Although it could be named since the ASCAT pass supports an upgrade, the NHC is likely waiting for convection to persist before giving 98L an official name. They did update the chances to 90/90 at 2 PM, so the upgrade is likely to come tonight or tomorrow in my opinion.

Might become a mid grade tropical storm but this system may have bigger implications for Dorian as the stronger this gets the less greater Antilles impact from Dorian but Florida becomes a problem so this will probably be Erin but could have indirect effects on Florida due to leaving a temporary weakness for Dorian

[OuterBanker]

Will 98l (soon to be Erin) influence Dorian's path.
Now back to 90%. What is odd is that it seems to have decoupled from the front. It looks stationary now and has a rather large well defined llc. If that is what the NHC is referring to I don't see how recon got the readings they did. It just looks like a naked swirl.
No landfall anywhere of course, but I wonder if it will pull Dorian more pole ward.

[northjaxpro]

Will 98l (soon to be Erin) influence Dorian's path.
Now back to 90%. What is odd is that it seems to have decoupled from the front. It looks stationary now and has a rather large well defined llc. If that is what the NHC is referring to I don't see how recon got the readings they did. It just looks like a naked swirl.
No landfall anywhere of course, but I wonder if it will pull Dorian more pole ward.

The weakness, which will be very briefly in place in soon to be Erin's wake, and would allow Dorian to move poleward enough to miss Hispaniola , but the ridge will build back in within the next 96 hours or so from now, and force Dorian to move west or west/northwest (depending on ridge orientation) toward Florida.

Ridge orientation will determine if it will be a greater threat to South Florida or Central Florida concerning potential direct landfall.