ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1175826368988405761

[ncforecaster89]

icyclones 30 min video of Dorian is the hands down most epic horrific footage you will ever see in regards to mother nature's absolute worst.

With all due respect and in no way meant to minimize the incredible footage captured by Icyclone...the winds in the video aren't any more intense (possibly even slightly less so, in fact) than those documented during hurricane Michael from the western-most portion of Mexico Beach.

The reason being is that the MB footage was captured in the absolute most intense portion of hurricane Michael's eyewall...right at the coast...with a direct onshore wind flow. In contrast, the Marsh Harbour footage was taken away from the immediate coastline...with a friction mitigating wind flow...while also being in the weaker SW quadrant of Dorian's eyewall. It's important to note that the estimated MSW of 185 mph was located well away from MH and the location of Icyclone's footage, as the peak winds were more than 10 nm N of the center.

That said, it's still highly likely that the winds reached upwards of 160 mph in MH, even in the SW eyewall, despite being well away from the strongest winds. Of course, the vast majority of the destruction was the direct result of the enormous storm surge that devastated the coastal sections of MH...as was the case for MB during Michael, despite the Cat 5 winds at both localities.

Here are the links to the two respective videos, referenced above, that provide visual evidence in support of the objective scientific data already discussed in the preceding paragraphs. Note that the peak winds in the Michael MB video were somewhere between 0:55:00 and 1:17:30...as the highest winds occurred after the wind shift and in the SE quadrant. There's about a two minute segment around the 1:04:00 to 1:06:00 mark that doesn't fit chronologically, as it was footage shot earlier (from over the balcony) during the NE eyewall.

Michael in Mexico Beach:

https://youtu.be/wiL3QKraaTY

Dorian in Marsh Harbour:

https://youtu.be/DV-PLJq4HD4

[Dave C]

What I noticed fron Dorian's footage Was The winds seemed more gusty where as your Micheal footage the winds seemed more sustained. Also, I thought the Dorian footage was more the northwest eyewall followed by the southeast eyewall which he didn't get much footage. It's really amazing to see two category 5 hurricanes footage from just two years apart .

[SconnieCane]

One thing I've noticed, even with all of these high-end cyclone landfalls with HD camera-equipped chasers intercepting the cores in the last couple years, you still can't see much of what's going on in the eyewall. It's all a white blur beyond 10 feet (or less). The brick walls collapsing, transmission towers being crumpled to the ground, etc are all hidden. This has tempered my long-time fascination with the idea of, "What would the footage look like if Andrew made landfall during daylight, and people with video cameras in Cutler and Homestead kept shooting?"

To actually get footage of damage in progress, you need to find a less well-built structure in a weaker part of the storm, or have a weaker cyclone overall. I find the widely distributed clip of a roof blowing off and splitting in two halves, which go in opposite directions during Iniki to remain one of the most impressive pieces of hurricane footage ever taken. I have yet to see anything similar from the 130kt+ landfalls of Irma, Maria, Michael or Dorian over the last 2-3 years.

[ncforecaster89]

What I noticed fron Dorian's footage Was The winds seemed more gusty where as your Micheal footage the winds seemed more sustained. Also, I thought the Dorian footage was more the northwest eyewall followed by the southeast eyewall which he didn't get much footage. It's really amazing to see two category 5 hurricanes footage from just two years apart .

Hi Dave! Thanks for the comment. I agree that the MB Michael footage is more sustained as it should be given it was right at the immediate coastline within 400 yards of the Gulf. The frictional effects of land caused the sustained winds in MH with Dorian to slow, but still retained the gusts expected with 140 kt Cat 5 wind speeds.

The winds in both MH and Elbow Cay had a westerly component consistent with their locations in the SW portion of the eyewall. As can be seen on an IR satellite image posted in comment #6002 on pg 301 of this thread, it's definitely the SW eyewall that was blasting MH...well away from the 185 mph winds that avoided both locations, fortunately.

It's really hard to believe, as you noted, that we were able to document Cat 5 landfalls in consecutive years...and...during daylight hours, no less! As such, both Jim Edds in MH and Doug Keisling 3 nm WNW of MB captured incredible images of the stadium effect and clear eye of these Cat 5 hurricanes, as well.

[ncforecaster89]

One thing I've noticed, even with all of these high-end cyclone landfalls with HD camera-equipped chasers intercepting the cores in the last couple years, you still can't see much of what's going on in the eyewall. It's all a white blur beyond 10 feet (or less). The brick walls collapsing, transmission towers being crumpled to the ground, etc are all hidden. This has tempered my long-time fascination with the idea of, "What would the footage look like if Andrew made landfall during daylight, and people with video cameras in Cutler and Homestead kept shooting?"

To actually get footage of damage in progress, you need to find a less well-built structure in a weaker part of the storm, or have a weaker cyclone overall. I find the widely distributed clip of a roof blowing off and splitting in two halves, which go in opposite directions during Iniki to remain one of the most impressive pieces of hurricane footage ever taken. I have yet to see anything similar from the 130kt+ landfalls of Irma, Maria, Michael or Dorian over the last 2-3 years.

I don't disagree with your observation, as the TV networks are usually not interested with the footage captured in the Cat 5 winds due to all the white-out conditions. They typically prefer video of much weaker wind speeds with much clearer visibility.

Having documented all of the east coast blizzards since 2014 and three separate huge Lake Effect Winter Storms beforehand...that's another thing that amazed me about the worst of Michael's eyewall; looked just like the same 0 sm "white-out" conditions...with horizontal rain instead of snow!

[cycloneye]

I'm absolutely speechless after witnessing what Dorian has done today, dang!!!

Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds must be having the storm of their lifetimes, I pray for their safety and for the people of the Bahamas!

Indeed, Josh story was bad what he went thru, but the most important thing is that he survived. In case you have not seen his video, here it is.

https://youtu.be/DV-PLJq4HD4

[FireRat]

I'm absolutely speechless after witnessing what Dorian has done today, dang!!!

Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds must be having the storm of their lifetimes, I pray for their safety and for the people of the Bahamas!

Indeed, Josh story was bad what he went thru, but the most important thing is that he survived. In case you have not seen his video, here it is.

https://youtu.be/DV-PLJq4HD4

That was quite a wild ride for Josh, wow, glad he and the others made it through safe! Those cars were troopers too, surprised they didn't get thrown around with those crazy winds! Imagine if he had chased Otis
That one was so destructive and dangerous too.