ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

Dorian went 10 (?) days as a hurricane with exactly one EWRC. Wow.

[CrazyC83]

Total outages in the Canadian Maritimes is now over 500,000. I believe that is higher than the US peak outage.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/1170540299644481536

[Hammy]

Kind of ironic given how under-sampled it was before it got to the Caribbean.

[beoumont]

Dorian went 10 (?) days as a hurricane with exactly one EWRC. Wow.

That is very unusual, for sure. Maybe Mother Nature got sick of hearing TV "weathermen" repeatedly using those few tropical meteorology terms that sound "cool" and gives the impression they know what they are talking about. "Now take this", said Dorian."

[HurricaneRyan]

Dorian went 10 (?) days as a hurricane with exactly one EWRC. Wow.

That is very unusual, for sure. Maybe Mother Nature got sick of hearing TV "weathermen" repeatedly using those few tropical meteorology terms that sound "cool" and gives the impression they know what they are talking about. "Now take this", said Dorian."

If there is any system that made me think of this song, it's Dorian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tmd-ClpJxA

[Do_For_Love]

Dorian was a legendary storm, just seemed like it wouldn't die or even weaken much when expected. The RI and peak of this storm was simply jaw dropping. Everybody on the eastern seaboard got a taste. Sadly, the Bahamas got a lot more. The destruction that happened there is not going to be easily remedied.

[Mouton]

Posted this on Tuesday the 27th before Dorian passed by Puerto Rico, to the east of it. I know it was a WAG but I am happy to repost it given what happened (Never crossed 80W):

[quote="Mouton"]IMO, the storm crosses 20N closer to 65W than 70 W as they show. There is a small ULL to its NW which will shear it for awhile. Clearly on the WV image, it is in a dry zone for awhile but that changes rapidly once past 25N and 75W. Over the gulf stream, it could take off. Till then probably stays under cat 1. I project a path bending more NW after crossing 20N, and wnw after 75w. I don't see this in the GOM as I suspect it turns N before 80W. Could be the rare Ga coast landing. I wonder if the front over the midwest can get here by the weekend. I doubt it but not to discount entirely.

The problem with these smallish storms is they can be greatly affected by the smallest of nudges. My fear has been it will RI once over the Gulf S if and wherever that happens."

[galaxy401]

Now that Dorian is finally just about gone we can now fully assess the destruction he caused in the Bahamas.

If news sources are accurate, it’s going to take awhile to investigate the disaster area and count the bodies. Add that with the smell of death in the air seems to indicate the death toll is going to be very high...

[somethingfunny]

A macabre thing to wonder about but it occured to my (comparatively hopeful) mind:

Is there a difference in the stench of decaying species? Could the horrendous smell of death in the Bahamas be primarily fish? Or livestock/pets/wildlife?

Now that Dorian is finally just about gone we can now fully assess the destruction he caused in the Bahamas.

If news sources are accurate, it’s going to take awhile to investigate the disaster area and count the bodies. Add that with the smell of death in the air seems to indicate the death toll is going to be very high...

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1170713161214783488

[Vdogg]

A macabre thing to wonder about but it occured to my (comparatively hopeful) mind:

Is there a difference in the stench of decaying species? Could the horrendous smell of death in the Bahamas be primarily fish? Or livestock/pets/wildlife?

Now that Dorian is finally just about gone we can now fully assess the destruction he caused in the Bahamas.

If news sources are accurate, it’s going to take awhile to investigate the disaster area and count the bodies. Add that with the smell of death in the air seems to indicate the death toll is going to be very high...

Death smells like death. It’s a fairly universal smell when dealing strictly with mammals. Insects of course smell different (if they even have a smell) and perhaps reptiles. It’s impossible to discern the difference in this case without investigating. Unfortunately, I fear it’s likely both humans and wildlife in this case. I don’t believe for a second that only 20 people died in a Cat 5 storm where many didn’t evacuate to higher ground. We’ve had higher death tolls in blizzards.

[CrazyC83]

It is clear Abaco and Grand Bahama will never be the same. It is their equivalent to Katrina...if not even worse.

[CrazyC83]

A macabre thing to wonder about but it occured to my (comparatively hopeful) mind:

Is there a difference in the stench of decaying species? Could the horrendous smell of death in the Bahamas be primarily fish? Or livestock/pets/wildlife?

Now that Dorian is finally just about gone we can now fully assess the destruction he caused in the Bahamas.

If news sources are accurate, it’s going to take awhile to investigate the disaster area and count the bodies. Add that with the smell of death in the air seems to indicate the death toll is going to be very high...

Death smells like death. It’s a fairly universal smell when dealing strictly with mammals. Insects of course smell different (if they even have a smell) and perhaps reptiles. It’s impossible to discern the difference in this case without investigating. Unfortunately, I fear it’s likely both humans and wildlife in this case. I don’t believe for a second that only 20 people died in a Cat 5 storm where many didn’t evacuate to higher ground. We’ve had higher death tolls in blizzards.

The population of Abaco and Grand Bahama, combined, is about 75,000. That's comparable to, say, a city the size of Melbourne, FL. If the intensity of the damage was done throughout South Florida, the damage total would be easily over $500 billion - not to mention the death toll would be incredible.

[Visioen]

It's kind of insane that things like a little or more ridging in one spot decide the lives of so many

[TallyTracker]

The final advisory on Dorian was just written. The NHC said that extratropical transition is now complete. Was it still not fully extratropical over the Canadian maritimes and the Gulf of St. Lawrence?

[CrazyC83]

The final advisory on Dorian was just written. The NHC said that extratropical transition is now complete. Was it still not fully extratropical over the Canadian maritimes and the Gulf of St. Lawrence?

That might get debated in the post-analysis? Although it looked frontal to me.

Regardless, good riddance Dorian...never to be seen again. Won't be seeing you in 2025, Dorian!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

...BUT DID IT HIT ALABAMA???



I'm sorry.

[ncforecaster89]

Been so busy the past 10 days or so that I am just now catching up on the exact track Dorian took through the Bahamas.   As far as I know, we had two chasers there for the landfall: Josh Morgerman at Marsh Harbour and Jim Edds at Elbow Cay.

Looking through the Recon archives, and radar and satellite loops...it appears that both Josh and Jim were somewhat fortunate (as much as one can be that still gets hit with Cat 5 conditions and a very large storm surge) that the maximum winds passed to their north. 

Based on all the videos I've seen so far from both locations, I'd estimate they both saw MSWs in the 140 kt Cat 5 range...with those 160 kt max winds fortuitously staying a little more than 10 nm to their N.  To date, I've personally only seen a little of Jim's footage and none of Josh's.  Very much look forward to seeing more of Jim's if he took any and whatever Josh may have captured.  

As I'm most curious as to what those 160 kt winds look like, has anyone seen video from the areas that endured the max winds in the N eyewall?

P.S. Both Josh and Jim each collected some truly remarkable data from the eye of an officially estimated 160 kt Cat 5.  Simply amazing!

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

With the story largely complete on Dorian, looking back, here is what I'd have for the best track.

AL052019, DORIAN, 76
20190824, 0000, , LO, 10.0N, 45.4W, 25, 1011,
20190824, 0600, , TD, 10.3N, 46.7W, 30, 1010,
20190824, 1200, , TD, 10.5N, 47.7W, 30, 1009,
20190824, 1800, , TD, 10.7N, 48.8W, 30, 1009,
20190825, 0000, , TS, 10.9N, 49.9W, 35, 1008,
20190825, 0600, , TS, 11.0N, 51.0W, 40, 1007,
20190825, 1200, , TS, 11.2N, 52.2W, 40, 1006,
20190825, 1800, , TS, 11.4N, 53.5W, 50, 1003,
20190826, 0000, , TS, 11.6N, 54.7W, 50, 1002,
20190826, 0600, , TS, 11.8N, 56.0W, 50, 1001,
20190826, 1200, , TS, 12.1N, 57.2W, 45, 1003,
20190826, 1800, , TS, 12.5N, 58.4W, 45, 1004,
20190827, 0000, , TS, 13.1N, 59.3W, 40, 1004,
20190827, 0100, L, TS, 13.2N, 59.5W, 40, 1004,
20190827, 0600, , TS, 13.7N, 60.2W, 40, 1005,
20190827, 0930, L, TS, 14.1N, 60.9W, 40, 1005,
20190827, 1200, , TS, 14.4N, 61.2W, 40, 1005,
20190827, 1800, , TS, 15.0N, 62.0W, 40, 1005,
20190828, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 62.7W, 45, 1004,
20190828, 0600, , TS, 16.4N, 63.5W, 50, 1002,
20190828, 1200, , TS, 17.2N, 64.2W, 60, 1000,
20190828, 1500, L, HU, 17.7N, 64.7W, 65, 998,
20190828, 1800, , HU, 18.3N, 65.1W, 65, 997,
20190829, 0000, , HU, 19.2N, 65.8W, 70, 992,
20190829, 0600, , HU, 20.0N, 66.4W, 75, 991,
20190829, 1200, , HU, 21.0N, 66.9W, 75, 988,
20190829, 1800, , HU, 22.0N, 67.4W, 75, 987,
20190830, 0000, , HU, 22.8N, 68.1W, 80, 979,
20190830, 0600, , HU, 23.5N, 68.8W, 85, 977,
20190830, 1200, , HU, 24.2N, 69.4W, 95, 972,
20190830, 1800, , HU, 24.8N, 70.3W, 105, 966,
20190831, 0000, , HU, 25.3N, 71.0W, 120, 950,
20190831, 0600, , HU, 25.7N, 72.1W, 125, 947,
20190831, 1200, , HU, 25.9N, 73.0W, 125, 945,
20190831, 1800, , HU, 26.1N, 74.0W, 130, 944,
20190901, 0000, , HU, 26.2N, 74.7W, 135, 941,
20190901, 0600, , HU, 26.4N, 75.6W, 135, 934,
20190901, 1200, , HU, 26.5N, 76.5W, 150, 924,
20190901, 1645, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.0W, 160, 911,
20190901, 1745, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 160, 908,
20190901, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 160, 908,
20190902, 0000, , HU, 26.6N, 77.7W, 150, 914,
20190902, 0130, L, HU, 26.6N, 77.8W, 150, 915,
20190902, 0600, , HU, 26.6N, 78.1W, 140, 919,
20190902, 0900, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.2W, 135, 922,
20190902, 1200, , HU, 26.7N, 78.2W, 130, 928,
20190902, 1800, , HU, 26.8N, 78.4W, 115, 937,
20190903, 0000, , HU, 26.8N, 78.3W, 100, 943,
20190903, 0600, , HU, 26.9N, 78.3W, 95, 949,
20190903, 1200, , HU, 27.1N, 78.4W, 90, 955,
20190903, 1800, , HU, 27.5N, 78.7W, 85, 959,
20190904, 0000, , HU, 28.1N, 78.8W, 85, 960,
20190904, 0600, , HU, 28.8N, 79.2W, 80, 963,
20190904, 1200, , HU, 29.5N, 79.6W, 80, 963,
20190904, 1800, , HU, 30.1N, 79.7W, 90, 962,
20190905, 0000, , HU, 30.7N, 79.7W, 100, 957,
20190905, 0600, , HU, 31.4N, 79.6W, 95, 956,
20190905, 1200, , HU, 32.1N, 79.2W, 90, 957,
20190905, 1800, , HU, 32.7N, 78.9W, 80, 958,
20190906, 0000, , HU, 33.4N, 77.9W, 75, 956,
20190906, 0600, , HU, 34.1N, 76.9W, 75, 956,
20190906, 1200, , HU, 35.1N, 75.7W, 80, 955,
20190906, 1235, L, HU, 35.2N, 75.6W, 80, 955,
20190906, 1800, , HU, 36.3N, 73.7W, 90, 950,
20190907, 0000, , HU, 37.8N, 71.1W, 85, 951,
20190907, 0600, , HU, 38.9N, 69.1W, 85, 952,
20190907, 1200, , HU, 40.9N, 67.0W, 85, 952,
20190907, 1800, , HU, 42.8N, 64.8W, 90, 950,
20190907, 2100, S, EX, 43.9N, 63.9W, 85, 953,
20190907, 2215, L, EX, 44.4N, 63.6W, 80, 956,
20190908, 0000, , EX, 45.1N, 62.9W, 80, 958,
20190908, 0430, L, EX, 46.4N, 62.1W, 75, 961,
20190908, 0600, , EX, 47.5N, 61.8W, 75, 962,
20190908, 1200, , EX, 49.4N, 60.4W, 65, 964,
20190908, 1800, , EX, 50.9N, 57.9W, 55, 970,
20190909, 0000, , EX, 52.1N, 54.8W, 50, 978,

Landfalls:
0100Z August 27 - Near Bathsheba, Barbados
0930Z August 27 - N tip of St. Lucia
1500Z August 28 - Port area on St. Croix
1645Z September 1 - Elbow Cay
1745Z September 1 - Marsh Harbour, Great Abaco
0130Z September 2 - Islands southeast of Grand Bahama
0900Z September 2 - High Rock, Grand Bahama
1235Z September 6 - Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
2215Z September 7 - South of Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia
0430Z September 8 - Red Point, Prince Edward Island

Notes:
* The track through the Windward Islands is revised to smooth out the center relocation.
* Most of the intensities in the early part of the track are largely in line with the operational estimates.
* The peak intensity is going to be subject to considerable debate. My opinion is that the 160 kt operational estimate is the best estimate, but you could argue significantly higher or lower.
* The minimum pressure is lowered slightly to 908 mb. That is based on the data from the storm chasers with the absolute center likely being a few miles south of them near the Marsh Harbour Airport (which lost all data).
* The track near Grand Bahama is smoothed out as well (albeit is incredibly slow), which creates two landfalls on the island - 25 miles and 7 1/2 hours apart - then it lingered just north of the island.
* The intensities after the Bahamas were likely significantly lower (at times as much as 15 kt so) than the operational intensities, which were quite generous given uncertain trends. I believe it was a category 1 hurricane (80 kt) as it passed east-central Florida.
* While I agree it regained major hurricane status off the Georgia coast briefly, it likely weakened again sooner, running the Carolina coast mostly with 75-80 kt winds.
* Landfall on Cape Hatteras (which could be disputed) was likely in the beginning of a re-strengthening trend, hence the 80 kt operational estimate seems accurate.
* Once clear of the Outer Banks, Dorian likely re-intensified yet again based on satellite data. I went with 90 kt when it looked best (you could argue for 95 kt as well), before dropping to 85 kt as extratropical transition begin. 90 kt is also added at 18Z just before becoming extratropical based on the ASCAT pass.
* My estimate for landfall in Nova Scotia is 80 kt, based on some pressure filling after a buoy report (although an argument could also be made for 85 kt, but the data over water is so sparse). Dorian likely became extratropical just before then. A landfall in Prince Edward Island is also added.