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ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
HWRF doing it's usual thing.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Not likely but not impossible this could be like Danny in 2015.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The only reason the 18Z GFS weakened this was due to going over Hispaniola. Had this gone just 100 miles more north, I think it would have shown something much more significant heading W to WNW into the Bahamas. It shows the Bermuda High ridge building westward into the SE US (192 hours shown) and an upper low moving west in tandem with 99l so it can’t shear it (168 hours). Below you can see the upper low over Eastern Cuba and 99l over Puerto Rico:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
gatorcane wrote:The only reason the 18Z GFS weakened this was due to going over Hispaniola. Had this gone just 100 miles more north, I think it would have shown something much more significant heading W to WNW into the Bahamas. It shows the Bermuda High ridge building westward into the SE US (192 hours shown) and an upper low moving west in tandem with 99l so it can’t shear it (168 hours). Below you can see the upper low over Eastern Cuba and 99l over Puerto Rico:
https://i.postimg.cc/Bnc54sPw/gfs-shear-watl-29.png
https://i.postimg.cc/446x83DM/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-33.png
7 days out. I always say "if you're in the bullseye 7 days out it's the safest place to be" because the model is never going to be that pinpoint accurate. This tells me 99L is likely to NOT go over Hispaniola
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
What's funny is that the ECMWF is a higher resolution model than the GFS, yet somehow cannot pick this system up.
For some reason it has been doing horrible with low latitude waves, I have noticed it all season long with the waves that were stronger than what it showed when they approached the southern windward islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nLiR6mL.png
That’s quite some agreement for 144 hours out.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nLiR6mL.png
Guaranteed death by windshear/land interaction if that path unfolds.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
00z GFS much weaker through 120 hours, however it continues to show the possibility this system may have a much better chance of development past Jamaica (if it goes that far south).
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The end of the GFS sure was interesting
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
MetroMike wrote:
Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.
Not really, see Harvey (slightly north) and Dean (further south).
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
MetroMike wrote:
Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.
It’s very unlikely, but not like it has no climo backing. Harvey had a very similar track around the same time of year.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
And the 1900 hurricane and Gilbert so paths like the GFS are showing have happened before
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Ubuntwo wrote:MetroMike wrote:
Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.
It’s very unlikely, but not like it has no climo backing. Harvey had a very similar track around the same time of year.
Yes I had that in mind but not a normal occurrence for Texas around September.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:And the 1900 hurricane and Gilbert so paths like the GFS are showing have happened before
Beulah in 1967 as well, almost a full month from now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Euro now clearly shows a small tropical storm, vs 24 hours ago.
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