ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#81 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:05 pm

Hammy wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Is that further north than the 0z?


Looks it, also a bit stronger.


Something appears to be odd about this model run for the Euro. It looks like the system (90L) currently around the TX/LA border has a significant increase of vorticity over land after coming onshore.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#82 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:10 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Is that further north than the 0z?


Looks it, also a bit stronger.


Something appears to be odd about this model run for the Euro. It looks like the system (90L) currently around the TX/LA border has a significant increase of vorticity over land after coming onshore.


Euro shows 850MB level and it's not uncommon if upper air/moisture are otherwise favorable, for the circulation to strengthen a bit above ground level after landfall, likely from the same dynamics that create those depression-type systems over central Texas during June.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#83 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:25 pm

Hammy wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Looks it, also a bit stronger.


Something appears to be odd about this model run for the Euro. It looks like the system (90L) currently around the TX/LA border has a significant increase of vorticity over land after coming onshore.


Euro shows 850MB level and it's not uncommon if upper air/moisture are otherwise favorable, for the circulation to strengthen a bit above ground level after landfall, likely from the same dynamics that create those depression-type systems over central Texas during June.


Yes, I considered this as a possibility. I recall Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 becoming better defined once it moved onshore. I just thought that the latest run of the Euro seemed to differ a bit from the previous run.
Last edited by captainbarbossa19 on Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#84 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:31 pm

Euro shears it because it develops another system in the Gulf.
Lid is coming off
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:32 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Any chance this doesn't even make it to the gulf at all! Deep trough/first cold front of the season comes to the Gulf coast before labor day! First cold front means your season is done so they say! By Friday, this system should be near Cuba as those of us on the Gulf Coast are chilling! Could the models turn it? We'll See!


There were cold fronts last September, and then Michael happened...
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#86 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:36 pm

Is that a giant system beginning to form in the Gulf on the last frame of the Euro run? Looks to be quite large. Way offnin fantasy land, though.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#87 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:46 pm

this only about td5
any thing about gulf should go gulf topic page
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#88 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:53 pm

sma10 wrote:7 days out. I always say "if you're in the bullseye 7 days out it's the safest place to be" because the model is never going to be that pinpoint accurate. This tells me 99L is likely to NOT go over Hispaniola

I keep hearing this but is it really true? It seems to me the consensus model target has a lower chance of being accurate compared to all other possibilities combined, but would have the highest chance of being accurate compared to any other single point. It seems deceptive and even mildly dangerous to suggest the consensus location is “the safest place to be”. If people are anywhere near the “bullseye” 7 days out, they need to not feel safe and pay close attention.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#89 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:02 pm

Another look at the 12z Euro zoomed as TD 5 tracks through the Lesser Antilles, forecasted to be a moderate to strong Tropical Storm.

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#90 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:11 pm

12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#91 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:34 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/1DEuMOj.png


Angle of approach around PR would concern me if it passes N of island.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#92 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:43 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/1DEuMOj.png

Let’s hope this experiences a similar fate as TS Erika from 2015.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#93 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:47 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/1DEuMOj.png


Angle of approach around PR would concern me if it passes N of island.


Being that this is at least 8-10 days from possibly affecting FL many things can change from track to going poof all the sudden, no concerns from my part at this point, just bear watch.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#94 Postby Frank2 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:17 pm

Not sure why the NHC is thinking this will become something significant (looks less organized than this morning): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#95 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:18 pm

NDG wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/1DEuMOj.png


Angle of approach around PR would concern me if it passes N of island.


Being that this is at least 8-10 days from possibly affecting FL many things can change from track to going poof all the sudden, no concerns from my part at this point, just bear watch.

true thing will chance their talk old front may pull into north fl by next weekend pull it alway
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#96 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:37 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
NDG wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
Angle of approach around PR would concern me if it passes N of island.


Being that this is at least 8-10 days from possibly affecting FL many things can change from track to going poof all the sudden, no concerns from my part at this point, just bear watch.

true thing will chance their talk old front may pull into north fl by next weekend pull it alway


Already a named storm, and since its kind of small it would be nice to know whether it will track north or south of Barbados? Early guess is that this will pass to the east of Florida but not sure by how much.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#97 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:45 pm

One thing that I was just noticing on the GFS is that it is trending slower with the ULL or TUTT that it forecasts to drop down towards Hispaniola over the next few days, it will make a big difference in its long range strength once it passes the Lesser Antilles, besides land interaction.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#98 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:51 pm

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIVE AL052019 08/24/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 59 66 67 71 70 69
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 59 66 67 71 70 69
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 53 58 61 63 64 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 7 3 5 5 9 10 10 10 13 6 16 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -6 0 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 122 135 98 24 18 336 348 288 284 250 233 236 261
SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 140 142 149 152 155 158 156 155 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 136 139 142 147 150 152 155 151 150 147
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 43 44 41 39 40 42 46 48 50 49 51 50 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 8 6 4
850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 26 19 21 0 17 13 18 15 25 12 5
200 MB DIV 2 -6 -11 -22 -19 -4 -4 19 22 31 43 1 9
700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -8 -7 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 760 715 682 655 641 617 515 389 358 456 313 144 81
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.7
LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6 52.6 54.8 56.6 58.5 60.6 62.4 64.2 65.9 67.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 14 26 40 41 38 49 47 65 84



.SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
Last edited by Highteeld on Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#99 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:52 pm

Latest 18z GFS shows it in a very good environment right before approacing Barbados :double:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#100 Postby hohnywx » Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:05 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, some are very aggressive.

<removed image>


The ones avoiding Hispanola with the more northern track are obviously the ones that come into Florida stronger. It goes without saying that Dorian's track in the next few days will be very important.
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