sma10 wrote:7 days out. I always say "if you're in the bullseye 7 days out it's the safest place to be" because the model is never going to be that pinpoint accurate. This tells me 99L is likely to NOT go over Hispaniola
I keep hearing this but is it really true? It seems to me the consensus model target has a lower chance of being accurate compared to
all other possibilities combined, but would have the highest chance of being accurate compared to
any other single point. It seems deceptive and even mildly dangerous to suggest the consensus location is “the safest place to be”. If people are anywhere near the “bullseye” 7 days out, they need to not feel safe and pay close attention.