SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??
My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :
"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph
That's a little over the top don't you think?
Euro 12Z Friday August 30th showed the stall. The paid 6 hour plots showed it better. This was after all the upper air data had been ingested.
Current link (which will expire in a week)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019083012&fh=36
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You could have looked this up yourself. I'll take that level of model accuracy, it's about the best you can expect. Since then the Euro has been showing the stall every run, but maybe it's not obvious on the 24 hour public plots.