ATL: DORIAN - Models

[tolakram]

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

That's a little over the top don't you think?

Euro 12Z Friday August 30th showed the stall. The paid 6 hour plots showed it better. This was after all the upper air data had been ingested.

Current link (which will expire in a week)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019083012&fh=36

Saved Image


You could have looked this up yourself. I'll take that level of model accuracy, it's about the best you can expect. Since then the Euro has been showing the stall every run, but maybe it's not obvious on the 24 hour public plots.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

That's a little over the top don't you think?

Euro 12Z Friday August 30th showed the stall. The paid 6 hour plots showed it better. This was after all the upper air data had been ingested.

Current link (which will expire in a week)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019083012&fh=36

Saved Image
https://i.imgur.com/oSrGz8J.gif

You could have looked this up yourself. I'll take that level of model accuracy, it's about the best you can expect. Since then the Euro has been showing the stall every run, but maybe it's not obvious on the 24 hour public plots.

Something feels wrong. Keep a clear eye until it lifts.

[sponger]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

I'll put my hand up for that. Being right in line with the beast still marching west at 5mph and only 100nm from your home is a bit unnerving.
I stayed up until the stall was verified.
After sitting here all day only 90nm due west from the center of devastion east of me; it's still a bit surreal.

Most amazing thing I have ever seen was that dead stop.

[NDG]

Was doing model comparison, the Euro besides being a little west biased at the present time is the only model that has been persistent in Dorian remaining stationary near Grand Bahama through early tomorrow morning while the rest have been showing it move out of the area faster than reality.

[ROCK]

NHC weighs their forecasts heavily on the EURO and the UKMET. There are the models I have the most confidence in...oh and I like the NOGAPS / Navgem as does Mr Masters

[CronkPSU]

can anyone post the 0z GFS?

[Duke95]

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

People were almost ready to discredit the official forecast yesterday when it was a few miles off track.. Today.. Crickets.

That being said its not over yet.

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

More I look at it, the models totally nailed it. Guess you just weren’t paying attention. https://i.ibb.co/Rv5vVgV/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

[HDGator]

People were almost ready to discredit the official forecast yesterday when it was a few miles off track.. Today.. Crickets.

That being said its not over yet.

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

More I look at it, the models totally nailed it. Guess you just weren’t paying attention. https://i.ibb.co/Rv5vVgV/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

I was paying attention, having been and still sitting 90nm west of the center of the storm. The 'models' didn't "totally nail it". The Euro and ensembles wandered with the rest with total destruction riding on the balance.
Until the complete stall happened, nobody knew for sure how the drop in steering and stall for the lift out by a descending trough would exactly happen.

[Mattda59]

can anyone post the 0z GFS?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[watsx2]

Hi everyone....yes Im a noobie. But I have a question. With the eye starting to wobble, and impossible to "forecast"....could the wobble or jump movement be enough to change any model significantly? Miles? Or no?

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[HDGator]

Hi everyone....yes Im a noobie. But I have a question. With the eye starting to wobble, and impossible to "forecast"....could the wobble or jump movement be enough to change any model significantly? Miles? Or no?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

The 'wobbles' in strong storms don't typically change the long term forecast or model tracks. They can change very short term effects that depend on the location of an eyewall but don't typically change the course of the storm.

[watsx2]

Hi everyone....yes Im a noobie. But I have a question. With the eye starting to wobble, and impossible to "forecast"....could the wobble or jump movement be enough to change any model significantly? Miles? Or no?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

The 'wobbles' in strong storms don't typically change the long term forecast or model tracks. They can change very short term effects that depend on the location of an eyewall but don't typically change the course of the storm.

Thanks.....thought I would ask.

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[TheDreamTraveler]

0z GFS looks very identical to the past couple runs. Gets it close to Florida, right on the coast of NC and then takes it up past New England and landfalls in Nova Scotia.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks for sharing TheDreamTraveler. I for one appreciate that somebody is keeping this thread alive with new relevant content. People from the Carolinas northward still need to keep a close eye on Dorian.

[watsx2]

Im still here also....I would like to give props to everyone for the last 2 days.....its been very informative and was/is great about staying on the focal point of where this thing was headed. On a side note.....I just learned Dorian means a catastrophic even in music....fitting name for this one.

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[watsx2]

Event***

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[watsx2]

The models didnt predict Dorian at a 3 this early....when it starts moving again over the warm waters will it intensify again?

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[drewschmaltz]

ECMWF a little further east.

[LarryWx]

Good news for FL. The 0Z Euro is further offshore than prior runs.

[rigbyrigz]

While it's a bit slow here (like Dorian?) permit me to say that the combination of models and posted comments and analysis here formed a pretty good basis for me to advise my aged stepmother in Ft. Lauderdale about 2.5 miles inland to stay put. (Thus far.)

She doesn't cotton to TV (or the news) and ever since my sister followed authorities advice to evacuate her middle Keys home in 1998 for Georges, only to be kept away for more than a week with 3 dogs in a station wagon (while the home escaped much of anything - the forced absence was a bit worse)… Mom doesn't follow their advice too eagerly either.

This amuses me; tonight as I confirmed for Mom she should still be fine, she whined: "but these nasty squalls, I'm so tired of them wish they would stop!". If she only knew how close she was to "real" Nasty!