ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St.
Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate
that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the
west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over
or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near
or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday
night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night.
Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday
while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions
of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST.
EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 62.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this
afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward
Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A
10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe
radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC.
But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the
inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a
recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the
low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to
expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been
maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR
surface wind data.

Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon
fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or
300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new
forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous
one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement
on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning
northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near
or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After
clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move
cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving
mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and
how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low
and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp
Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track
is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and
brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours.
Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or
so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with
Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the
intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models
continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear
conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will
be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level
environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF
are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still
remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models,
which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The
official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these
two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models.
Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than-
normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4
and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Corrected forecaster name

...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over
or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near
or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday
night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night.
Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday
while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of
the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern
Caribbean Sea overnight, pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.
Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and
Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night, and near or
to the east of the central Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected
to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near
or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central
Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 63.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Dorian is yet to strengthen, and the initial intensity remains near
45 kt. The storm's cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking
with no clear convective banding features. Since the storm has
strong upper-level outflow over the western semicircle of the
circulation and vertical shear should remain low for the next day or
two, strengthening is still forecast before Dorian reaches Puerto
Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is likely by 24 hours due to the
interaction of the circulation with Puerto Rico. The intensity
forecast in 3-5 days remains problematic because of a significant
spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies.
The official intensity forecast has been increased in comparison to
the previous ones. However, it is now near the low end of the
numerical guidance suite.

Dorian has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is 310/11 kt. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone
will be headed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In 3-4
days, the global models show the ridge rebuilding somewhat over the
western Atlantic. This scenario should cause Dorian to turn toward
the left later in the forecast period. The official forecast has
been shifted to the north of the previous one. This is in close
agreement with the ECMWF model track, but south and southwest of
the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance.
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near Puerto Rico
and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Dorian is then
forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas by Thursday night, and near or to the east of
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast today, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across
the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually
re-strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the
Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is
then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be
near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to
strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1
to 4 inches.
Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches.
Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches
Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches.
Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches.
Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the
Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 63.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 63.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN NEARING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 64.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has modified the watches
and warnings and now a Tropical Watch is in effect from Isla Saona
to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is
then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the
central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast
to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to
strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust to near 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently
reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

An Air Force reconnaissance plane just reported an estimated minimum
central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1
to 4 inches.
Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches.
Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches
Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches.
Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches.
Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are still possible in portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the
Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track,
Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern
Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the
Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 64.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.

3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the apparent eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). On this track,
Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands during the next several hours and then move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a
powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic
waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to
6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Western Puerto Rico and the central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to
4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and could still occur over Vieques, Culebra,
and the British Virgin Islands during the next several hours. These
winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO
12 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.

Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that
Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12
kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models
continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this
flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest
toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend,
a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The
new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous
one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and
the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra,
Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands has been discontinued.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the British Virgin Islands.

The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico have
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
19.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over
the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 66.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track,
Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern
and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a
powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The northern Bahamas and Coastal sections of the Southeast United
States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 66.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show
that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed
surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is
increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low
shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29
deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to
intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model
output.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt.
Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the
forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This
evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn
west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual
track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the
western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of
course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and
corrected dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the
weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the
weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain
an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared
satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3
aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure,
with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi
diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to
around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the
aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite
the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75
kt for this advisory.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving
northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an
upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the
Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the
north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward
the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond
72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the
ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the
period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical
wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least
steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small
inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also
remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term
given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity
forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.
The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this
area on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

There has been little overall change in the structure of Dorian
today. The hurricane has several well-defined bands of convection
wrapping into the center and a small central dense overcast. The
small eye has not been as apparent in geostationary satellite
imagery this afternoon, but the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported concentric eyewall diameters of 4 and 22 n mi several
hours ago. The latest satellite intensity estimates still support
an initial intensity of 75 kt, which is also in line with the
earlier SFMR data from the aircraft. The next reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this evening.

Dorian is moving northwestward or 325 at 11 kt. The hurricane
should continue moving northwestward tonight between an upper-level
low just to the west of Dorian and a mid-level ridge near Bermuda.
On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the
north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the
hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to
westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian
moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida
peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle,
with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS
bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in
along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among
the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of
differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof
of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track
forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but
has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on
the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5
are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.

The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one.
Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should
allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to
become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a
dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the
guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models.

The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
model cycle.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 22.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 69.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian
is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier
Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

There hasn't been a lot of new data since the Hurricane Hunter
planes departed Dorian several hours ago. The convective pattern
on infrared satellite imagery has been nearly steady state,
although the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB rose to
T5.0/90 kt. These estimates, combined with the earlier aircraft
data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 90 kt.

Dorian's heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with
the latest estimate northwestward, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Dorian
is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near
Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The
high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming
established over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models
are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning
westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the
northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day
3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and
Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the
Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic
models and their ensemble members during that time, with
disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn
northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the
tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle
did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with
perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The
biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near
Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a
prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.

The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some
southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from
strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more
favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which
should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although
overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for
strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that
some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves
through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC
official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is
forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain
that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the
Florida peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas,
where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should
begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given
by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of
hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days
in parts of Florida early next week.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the
Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to
determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of
devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and
peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too
soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents
should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a
hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 69.4 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A slower west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through
the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic
well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach
the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later
today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 69.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue
into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should
move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central
Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern
Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later
today, and it will remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance planes is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Saturday night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 70.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 70.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning by Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern
has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow.
Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and
subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt
winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the
intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory.

Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable
for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface
temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification.
Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as
it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days.

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building
to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a
more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is
forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for
the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then
weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's
forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the
track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly
uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the
core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep
it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends.

Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for
the Florida coast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where
the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their
hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation
zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 26.2N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 26.8N 76.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 80.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR FL EAST COAST
120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DORIAN STRONGER...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto