BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 72.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
eastward or northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or
so. The cyclone is expected to begin to accelerate northeastward
on Wednesday, and this general motion should continue through
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
remain well east of the east coast of the United States.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 72.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
eastward or northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or
so. The cyclone is expected to begin to accelerate northeastward
on Wednesday, and this general motion should continue through
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
remain well east of the east coast of the United States.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 72.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 72.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019
The circulation associated with the area of low pressure that has
been tracked across the western Atlantic the past several days has
become better defined during the past 24 hours. The associated
convection, which is located well to the southeast of the low-level
center due to shear, has also become more persistent and organized
into a band today. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a
tropical depression. The initial wind speed has been set at 30 kt,
based on earlier ASCAT data. There were a few 35-kt vectors in the
ASCAT-A overpass but those data appeared to be rain-inflated.
The depression is currently located over warm water but within an
environment of moderate westerly shear, which is likely to continue
during the next day or so. Although some slight strengthening is
forecast, the shear is likely to prohibit significant deepening
during that time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to decrease
while the system moves northeastward and some modest strengthening
is anticipated. Later in the period, an approaching mid-latitude
trough may also help to strengthen the cyclone due to baroclinic
processes, and the system is forecast to become extratropical in
3 to 4 days, and should be absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone by day 5.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 080/2 kt. The
depression is forecast to drift eastward or northeastward during
the next day or so as it remains in an area of weak steering flow
between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. As the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough approaches the northeastern United States on
Wednesday, it should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward
well east of the east coast of the United States. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement, but there are some
differences in how fast it will be ejected northeastward. The NHC
track forecast leans toward the slower ECMWF solution during the
first day or so, then closer to the consensus aids later in the
period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019
The circulation associated with the area of low pressure that has
been tracked across the western Atlantic the past several days has
become better defined during the past 24 hours. The associated
convection, which is located well to the southeast of the low-level
center due to shear, has also become more persistent and organized
into a band today. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a
tropical depression. The initial wind speed has been set at 30 kt,
based on earlier ASCAT data. There were a few 35-kt vectors in the
ASCAT-A overpass but those data appeared to be rain-inflated.
The depression is currently located over warm water but within an
environment of moderate westerly shear, which is likely to continue
during the next day or so. Although some slight strengthening is
forecast, the shear is likely to prohibit significant deepening
during that time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to decrease
while the system moves northeastward and some modest strengthening
is anticipated. Later in the period, an approaching mid-latitude
trough may also help to strengthen the cyclone due to baroclinic
processes, and the system is forecast to become extratropical in
3 to 4 days, and should be absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone by day 5.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 080/2 kt. The
depression is forecast to drift eastward or northeastward during
the next day or so as it remains in an area of weak steering flow
between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. As the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough approaches the northeastern United States on
Wednesday, it should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward
well east of the east coast of the United States. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement, but there are some
differences in how fast it will be ejected northeastward. The NHC
track forecast leans toward the slower ECMWF solution during the
first day or so, then closer to the consensus aids later in the
period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
