WPAC: KAJIKI - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

91W INVEST 190829 1800 18.0N 127.0E WPAC 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[1900hurricane]

This looks like the South China Sea mess on guidance (or at least part of it).

[euro6208]

EURO stalls this offshore Hainan.

GFS remains this weak...998 at landfall.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 301200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301200Z-310600ZAUG2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.9N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA. A 300645Z
85GHZ SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW 91W TRACKING WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Nancy Smar]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 17.9N 126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY

78 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. AMSI SHOWS A

CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING

WRAPPING FROM THE WEST. A 310107Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE

REVEALS THE AREA LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A 310150Z

ASCAT-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH

SIDE OF THE LLC. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH

MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SSTS BEING

OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND

INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Model guidance are showing that this will start moving erratically once it is near Hainan island a few days from now.

[Hayabusa]

Remains medium

ABPW10 PGTW 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/311000ZAUG2019-010600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 122.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY
53 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. AMSI SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
WEST. A 310754Z SSMIS F-16 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SINGULAR BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. A
310150Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SSTS
BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

TD warning

TD
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 31 August 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 31 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E119°35' (119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[Hayabusa]

Next name is Lingling... doesn't sound ominous... Kajiki and Faxai sounds more like it but even more are Mitag and Hagibis

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 311900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 119.0E TO 18.2N 109.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 118.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311332Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM. A
311334Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF LUZON, TAKING ON SOME CURVATURE NEAR THE LLCC.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (30-
32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGH SHEAR ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
91W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN BROAD AND CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011900Z.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168034074927206400

[doomhaMwx]

91W will be lingering in the vicinity of Hainan and off the coast of northern/central Vietnam during the next few days as it encounters a complicated steering environment. There may be prolonged heavy rainfall in Southern China as well as in the northern and central parts of Vietnam due to the system's expected erratic/slow movement.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY
252 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA. AMSI, ALONG WITH A 010202Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS VERY BROAD LLCC WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST. A 010130 METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 91W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A VERY BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

We actually had a clean circulation yesterday. Then the monsoon westerlies surged and this happened.

[doomhaMwx]

The track of 91W is expected to become complicated due to possible interaction with another low to its southeast. Most of the model guidance show/indicate that these two will merge into one system and consolidate, with 91W being the dominant, but of course it remains yet to be seen which of the two will really become dominant.

At this time, 91W is still expected to slow down in forward/movement speed soon, lingering in the vicinity of Hainan and near the coast of central Vietnam during the next few days. Most model guidance then suggests that the system will turn back to the northeast and possibly come ashore into Southern China's Guangdong Province. A number of met agencies, namely JMA, HKO, and Vietnam's NHCMF agree on the aforementioned scenario, but there is rather low confidence in the forecast at this time.

[Hayabusa]

JMA named it as Kajiki

TS 1914 (Kajiki)
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 2 September 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 2 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°35' (16.6°)
E107°35' (107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

JTWC upgraded to 16W but note the contrast to JMA's forecast of this system

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS LOCATED OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021318Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND HAS FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TD 16W IS TRACKING
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AS IT
TRANSITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND HUE CITY, VIETNAM
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 6. ONCE OVER LAND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN