WPAC: LINGLING - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

Down to 940.5mb at Miyakojima at 05Z.

[1900hurricane]

Down to 940.5mb at Miyakojima at 05Z.

Spits out ~110 kt in KZC. Surface obs also support that intensity very well, as we've both previously noted.

[WAcyclone]

Stadium effect in Miyakojima!

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1169490380242292737

[doomhaMwx]

Microwave pass while Lingling was directly over Miyakojima and nearby islands.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A VERY WELL-DEFINED 20NM
EYE, SUPPORTED THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT
MIYAKOJIMA (47927), LOCATED AT 24.8N 125.3E, SHOWS EYE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM OCCURRED AT 0500Z WHEN CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED AT
941MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS CONDUCIVE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. TY 15W MAINTAINED A NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD UNDER THE STR. AFTER
TAU 48, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ENTERING INTO THE
YELLOW SEA AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 120 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SST WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 48, TY 15W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTH COAST OF NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 60. WITH LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TY 15W
WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEEDS OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Seems close.

[NotoSans]

And Lingling has surface observation which indicates a central pressure 30mb higher than Dorian.

[euro6208]

:uarrow: And Lingling has surface observation which indicates a central pressure 30mb higher than Dorian.

Uh. I wasn't comparing at landfall.

Plus it isn't done strengthening.

[mrbagyo]

Lingling's eye temp is getting pretty warm now, could cross 20°C threshold any time.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1169490380242292737



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1169586076769386497

[1900hurricane]

JTWC went up to 120 kt for 18Z, although that looks like it's going to start coming down now.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC went up to 120 kt for 18Z, although that looks like it's going to start coming down now.

https://i.imgur.com/omtW2V8.gif

Nevermind, SSMIS came in at 130 kt, bringing SATCON up. JTWC holding at 120 kt.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE AND A
WELL-DEFINED 16-NM EYE AS IT SLIGHTLY DEEPENED WITH FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SHARPLY-OUTLINED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A
COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JMA THAT STACKED UP VERTICALLY
WITH THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120KTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.2 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MITIGATED BY
THE STORM MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY LINGLING WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE
STR. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NORTH KOREA NEAR HAEJU THEN DRAG OVER RUGGED TERRAIN AND CROSS INTO
NORTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
PARA 2 WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE BIT MORE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
125KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST IN THE
YELLOW SEA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT TAU 36, TY 14W WILL
ENTER THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND DECAY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER RUGGED TERRAIN.
BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 36. BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Just for fun but look at the resemblance. Only thing lacking is recon now.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to take some SW shear just below anvil level, especially in the 200-300 mb layer according to surrounding soundings.

[mrbagyo]

400 radar image frames animation of Typhoon Lingling (Taiwan Extended Domain -CWB)


400 radar image frames animation of Typhoon Lingling (Miyako-Jima / Yaeyama - JMA)


(Created via GIF maker editor and uploaded to Gifyu)

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/notosans_s2k/status/1169841446066642944

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY
SHOWS TY 15W REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 30-NM EYE. RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHT INTO THE
EYE, WHICH LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACEMENT
BASED ON A DISCERNIBLE EYE FEATURE IN HIMAWARI-8 VISIBLE 1 KM
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0
TO T6.2. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH VALUES OF 5-20
KTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAIN
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 30. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OVER RUGGED TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 72.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 12. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
YELLOW SEA, TY 15W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SST VALUES. TY 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 30 AND
SUBSEQUENTLY RAPIDLY DECAY WITH LAND INTERACTION. THE TAU 72 POSITION
SHOWS INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND WIND RADII AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
ETT AND TRANSFORMS INTO A STRONG GALE FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK
SPEED AFTER TAU 36. BASED ON THE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

KZC with that pressure and the 00Z JTWC stuff gives me 121.7 kt (r34) and 123.6 kt (roci). That's pretty much in line with the JTWC estimate and some of the microwave estimates. It's really cool that we've been getting some direct data with this one!

[Hayabusa]

Any livestream from Seoul this typhoon is making the closest approach at daytime. This could be even stronger than Kompasu when it made its approach, Lingling could be a record breaker for them.