WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 94W)

[Nancy Smar]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 14.8N 115.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[doomhaMwx]

This is located southeast of Invest / TD 91W. This new low is expected to complicate the track of 91W. Most of the model guidance show/indicate that these two will merge into one system and consolidate, with 91W being the dominant, but of course it remains yet to be seen which of the two will really become dominant.

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 190902 1800 17.4N 113.9E WPAC 20 998

[Hayabusa]

Already TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 022130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N 113.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.4N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021741Z 89GHZ AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALLER EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS DRIVING SOME
FLARING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C)
SST, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TD 16W TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. EITHER INDEPENDENTLY OR AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TD 16W, MODELS AGREE ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032130Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 021800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 16.6N 114.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NW SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[Nancy Smar]

94W INVEST 190902 1800 17.4N 113.9E WPAC 20 998

[Hayabusa]

I forgot there is already the same thread, now if there is a just a mod who could merge this

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 022130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N 113.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.4N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021741Z 89GHZ AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALLER EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS DRIVING SOME
FLARING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C)
SST, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TD 16W TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. EITHER INDEPENDENTLY OR AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TD 16W, MODELS AGREE ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032130Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Model guidance have been suggesting the idea of Kajiki and 94W merging into one system and consolidate, but uncertainty has increased further on which of the two systems will become dominant. It is even possible that 94W will remain a separate system.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
113.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 030301Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER HAINAN
ISLAND. A 030230Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OVER SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND INDICATE AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 THEN A POLEWARD TURN WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, HINDERED BY INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 031830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022121ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.9E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
031411Z 89GHZ METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT
28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH TD 16W TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS NO LONGER EXISTS.//
NNNN