ATL: FERNAND - Remnants - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 07, 2019090312, , BEST, 0, 236N, 946W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, DISSIPATED, al072019 to al932019, TRANSITIONED, alB32019 to al072019,

[tailgater]

Not much of a question (imho) this will be/is a TC just a question if it gets a name today. I’m thinking it goes inland late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Thankfully no time to ramp up into a monster.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.

Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[supercane4867]

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/zDAKlV5.png

Craziness, but we should get Fernand later today or early tomorrow morning from this

Also when does recon go into this

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://i.imgur.com/zDAKlV5.png

Craziness, but we should get Fernand later today or early tomorrow morning from this

Also when does recon go into this

Wheels up at 130pm CDT. Also how do you make a topic post on here. Thanks

[mpic]

Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.

[ROCK]

Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.

Agreed, more hot days ahead...miserable down here even where I am living near Galveston.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

These gulf systems can be hard to predict as far as intensity goes. Very broad storm but has nearly 36 hours of water left. 55 knots doesn't seem out of the question.

[Stormtrack70]

Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.

[mpic]

Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.

Agreed, more hot days ahead...miserable down here even where I am living near Galveston.

Dickinson was my Texas hometown for almost 40 years. Moved to Splendora before Harvey. Good seeing you on the boards again.

[Rgv20]

Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.

Hopefully this helps you understand NOAA's mission...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
403rd Wing, Air Force Reserve Command
Keesler Air Force Base, Biloxi, Mississippi

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve, is the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes – since 1944. The ten Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft and crews are part of the 403rd Wing, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
Lakeland Linder Regional Airport, Lakeland, Florida

The NOAA Aircraft Operations Center is part of NOAA's Office of Marine and Aviation Operations. The airplanes of the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) are flown in support of NOAA's mission to promote global environmental assessment, prediction and stewardship of the Earth's environment. NOAA's aircraft operate throughout the United States and around the world; over open oceans, mountains, coastal wetlands, and Arctic pack ice. These versatile aircraft provide scientists with airborne platforms necessary to collect the environmental and geographic data essential to their research.


Anyway back on topic....Satellite representation looking good hopefully it can bring some decent rains to the RGV.

[tolakram]

Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.

What kind of answer are you looking for? The NHC is in charge of that area and Mexico does not have their own fleet of hurricane hunter planes. We use them for research and to help coordinate watches and warnings. Specifically why we send recon to that area is off topic to this storm.

[Steve]

Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.

Don't play victim. No one jumped you. We answered your question which was cheesy at best.

[psyclone]

Were I king...this site would close to new membership when things get busy...it's a shame to see posting quality degrade when quality is most needed. Anywho this system looks good...its only impediment is running out of ocean, otherwise it would go Katia which was another storm largely ignored thanks to a beast to its east at the time

[Stormtrack70]

Steve,

Will this storm stay in Mexico or will it move into Texas? If so where would it head?

[Highteeld]

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...

1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 23.5°N 95.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Public
Advisory
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[Steve]

Steve,

Will this storm stay in Mexico or will it move into Texas? If so where would it head?

I think it will move into Mexico - 95% sure. It's now Ferdinand which I missed, but I think that's why they sent recon in to see what was going on. Might be some rain for South Texas with landfalling Ferdinand. It can't go north because of high pressure. Here you go 70.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[ROCK]

Finally

[ROCK]

Watch for center relo towards that northland batch of tstorms. STexas will get some showers I think