ATL: FERNAND - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:50 pm

Image
lot of convection, a category 1 is posibble after all, and I start to worry about the landfall intensity and rain amount, maybe much more than we need
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:57 pm

This storm is nearly identical to its 2013 version, except it's just farther north.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:07 pm

Looks much more organized now. Correlates with recon finding a stronger storm too. Doesn't have much time though to reach hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby Chris90 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:09 pm

Recon found a 49kt SFMR wind with pretty equivalent flight level winds. Looks like Fernand may be a 50kt storm now.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:12 pm

Still has ~20 hours over water if the NHC track is to be believed. Plenty of time to become a Cat 1. See Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 for similar situations.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:21 pm

I'd probably be considering a Hurricane Watch since conditions are quite favorable - time is the only thing it doesn't have.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:03 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Still has ~20 hours over water if the NHC track is to be believed. Plenty of time to become a Cat 1. See Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 for similar situations.


Tough to see how it could have 20 more hours the way it looks on IR, but I suppose the center is displaced back some from the deepest convection. But yeah, I’d emphasize your point of anything hitting the western land of the basin (Gulf and often Yucatán) more or less perpendicularly almost always tightens up coming in.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:46 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Still has ~20 hours over water if the NHC track is to be believed. Plenty of time to become a Cat 1. See Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 for similar situations.


Humberto and Lorenzo were fascinating to watch spin into angry little fellas so quickly. Gotta watch these dudes with spanish names in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:17 pm

It is already raining in my hometown Escobedo N.L, part of Monterrey metropolitan area, it should be raining also in other areas of the city, especially to the south
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and
found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized
with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak
flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around
45 kt. This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory.
These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the
storm and very close to the coast of Mexico. The satellite
presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to
shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an
area of very deep convection.

Fernand does not have to much room for strengthening since its
circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of
eastern Mexico. However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the
center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated
in the official NHC forecast. Once Fernand moves inland, it will
weaken rapidly.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt.
Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the
cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so.
This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent
with the solution of the global models.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:29 pm

Nuevo Leon state has suspended classes due to the upcoming rain, I wonder how the Santa Catarina river will look since the Sierra Madre Oriental will capt the majority of the rain, It will be a shame if all the vegetation that growed after Alex in 2010 get out. Well is not forecasted to be the same amount of rain as Alex, Gilbert or the 1909 great Monterrey hurricane but still is a posibility the rivers overflow and wipe out everything! :cry: the positive thing is that reservoirs will be full after this, they have been in a very very low level. :( I don´t know if I will lose power tomorrow but is likely, it happens often in my house :lol:.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:49 am

Steve wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Still has ~20 hours over water if the NHC track is to be believed. Plenty of time to become a Cat 1. See Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 for similar situations.


Tough to see how it could have 20 more hours the way it looks on IR, but I suppose the center is displaced back some from the deepest convection. But yeah, I’d emphasize your point of anything hitting the western land of the basin (Gulf and often Yucatán) more or less perpendicularly almost always tightens up coming in.


Got to agree with you on that Steve. Looks displaced but always that part of the basin tighten up storms. IMO it should be a Cat 1 At landfall later this morning idk...I am at a bar trying to pick up women :eek:
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:56 am

Btw love Avila and Stewart discussion on the NHC site...good stuff but they always leave that one out..to hedge their bets on the likely hood something goes against the norm..I don’t blame them. I am prelaw grad and the law never deals with absolutes....sort
If like the Sith :eek:
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:39 am

Buck wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Still has ~20 hours over water if the NHC track is to be believed. Plenty of time to become a Cat 1. See Humberto and Lorenzo in 2007 for similar situations.


Humberto and Lorenzo were fascinating to watch spin into angry little fellas so quickly. Gotta watch these dudes with spanish names in the gulf.


The name Fernand is actually of French origin
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:12 am

Wish we’d get some rain off this.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:15 pm

The intensity of rain is now bigger and constant than yesterday's tonight, nothing bad right now, actually is so refreshing :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby mpic » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:14 pm

Astromanía wrote:The intensity of rain is now bigger and constant than yesterday's tonight, nothing bad right now, actually is so refreshing :ggreen:


Jealous! Quit being stingy and share sime of that lol.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Depression

#118 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:25 pm

It already made landfall?
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Depression

#119 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:18 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:It already made landfall?

yes
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Depression

#120 Postby hohnywx » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:19 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:It already made landfall?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/a ... 1636.shtml?
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