ATL: FERNAND - Remnants - Discussion

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Stormtrack70
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression

#81 Postby Stormtrack70 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:07 pm

psyclone wrote:Were I king...this site would close to new membership when things get busy...it's a shame to see posting quality degrade when quality is most needed. Anywho this system looks good...its only impediment is running out of ocean, otherwise it would go Katia which was another storm largely ignored thanks to a beast to its east at the time


Thank you Sir! I apologize for my earlier post.

Hail Caesar....
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Steve
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:09 pm

ROCK wrote:Watch for center relo towards that northland batch of tstorms. STexas will get some showers I think



There have been a couple inches up near Padre and just inland. I think they'll see more from there all the way down to the Valley and into Matamoros and Tampico, .

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... O&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:20 pm

Is the center exposed to the east or under that convection? With that appearance and movement, it looks like it will make landfall tonight instead of tomorrow.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Netzero9455 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:21 pm

Why Fernand and not Erin? Is the E name being skipped?
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:21 pm

Netzero9455 wrote:Why Fernand and not Erin? Is the E name being skipped?


We already had Erin. It only lasted like two days though.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:25 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Is the center exposed to the east or under that convection? With that appearance and movement, it looks like it will make landfall tonight instead of tomorrow.


Yeah it will probably be late tonight or early morning before it goes into MX...no biggie thou but some good rain for STX as Steve pointed out. It has been very hot here on the Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:33 pm

This will be more benefical than problematic, its not a cane and I dont think it will have a chance, by the way I'm really impatient to get the rain :ggreen:, just I hope the people around the rivers understand that they shouldn´t be there :grr: :roll:
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:16 pm

This would've been a hurricane if it had an extra day, very well organized spiral banding.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:28 pm

Netzero9455 wrote:Why Fernand and not Erin? Is the E name being skipped?

If you blinked you might have missed it.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:33 pm

Were the ICON and GEM the only two models that showed development well in advance? I don't think even the NAM picked it up as actually developing until yesterday.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:40 pm

Hammy wrote:Were the ICON and GEM the only two models that showed development well in advance? I don't think even the NAM picked it up as actually developing until yesterday.


ECMWF was hinting at it for days.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:14 pm

NAM had it last week in most of the runs starting mid last week. The ICON was the main one, and EC had it on some of its runs as well. I think the CMC might have shown it mid last week. But Icon was the model showing the feature the most early on and did fairly well with it.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby Audreyadele » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:21 pm

In Port Mansfield and it’s been a light shower most of the day with a few heavy rains here and there. Nice to have some relief from the heat! Hopefully, it won’t cause any problems further south.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:31 pm

I think that Fernand is 45 to 50mph Storm you all. The burst really set the tone. Recon are on their way.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:38 pm

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#97 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:21 pm

Hurricane Hunters found a circulation and tropical storm force winds. Center was actually found southwest of the initial forecast point.
Time: 22:05:00Z
Coordinates: 23.150N 96.117W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 722 m (2,369 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.1 mb (29.62 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 17° at 4 kts (From the NNE at 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 kts (6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (0.24 in/hr)
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby lrak » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:50 pm

Looks like Fernand is trying to pull a fast one just before landfall :D The visible satellite looks like it's slowing a "wee" bit as it approaches the coast.

The ICON IMO did the best job with this TS...Hurricane maybe?
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:05 pm

Hammy wrote:Were the ICON and GEM the only two models that showed development well in advance? I don't think even the NAM picked it up as actually developing until yesterday.



The Euro had it
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:16 pm

Could pull a Jose 2005 or a uh... literally last Fernand 2013 and be deepening fast at landfall not far below hurricane intensity. I thought we'd get a TD outta this so it's already surpassed my expectations lol
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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