ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.

Degenerates in the Caribbean

Did the same thing with Dorian.

Just because it whiffed on Dorian doesn’t mean it will happen again. It was constantly showing minimal strengthening with Barry while other models were going nuts with intensification and did a pretty good job. No use in speculating though since every run from now til mid September will be different.

[CyclonicFury]

SHIPS still showing a very favorable environment.
* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/06/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 56 64 73 78 87 90
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 56 64 73 78 87 90
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 40 48 58 69 82 93
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 3 2 9 8 8 3 2 2 1 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 1 0
SHEAR DIR 96 100 116 158 131 77 79 83 124 114 149 358 177
SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.2 29.0 29.1 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 134 139 136 134 134 138 138 140 152 153 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 131 137 134 131 132 136 136 139 151 151 143
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 61 62 61 60 58 58 57 54 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 8 7 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 31 36 44 44 45 47 40 45 37 27 7
200 MB DIV -2 9 20 9 -4 7 -13 4 14 -5 21 7 38
700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 624 763 902 1042 1181 1461 1741 1980 1737 1493 1306 1147 1048
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.2
LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 31.1 33.7 36.5 39.1 41.7 44.0 46.1 47.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 7 12 14 12 9 10 14 15 20 25 35 39 45

[cycloneye]

[ROCK]

Love these long CV storms. Track for days and days. Wait didn’t we just do that??

[GeneratorPower]

0z GFS has a low runner headed for Windward islands at 144 hours. 991 mb.

[Hurricaneman]

This run looks like it may catch the NE Lesser Antilles

[WeatherEmperor]

This run looks like it may catch the NE Lesser Antilles

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[AutoPenalti]

This run looks like it may catch the NE Lesser Antilles

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190906/c78db6325a5bfe30c6bc91449268a9df.png


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I know it’s not a 500mb chart but that’s quite a flat ridge extending all the way to the Carolinas...

[WeatherEmperor]

This run looks like it may catch the NE Lesser Antilles

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190906/c78db6325a5bfe30c6bc91449268a9df.png


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I know it’s not a 500mb chart but that’s quite a flat ridge extending all the way to the Carolinas...

Yes I forgot to mention that. You took the words out of my mouth


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[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS breaks down the ridge at about 228 and has an escape route between North Carolina and Bermuda

[AutoPenalti]

The 0zGFS breaks down the ridge at about 228 and has an escape route between North Carolina and Bermuda

No trough is seen though...ridge is building back. This has nowhere to go but WNW.

[AutoPenalti]

Hour 248, shortwave coming into view from the valley.
Random ULL digging down central Atlantic, creates a weakness. Moving NW.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I get we're on edge after Dorian but frame-by-frame model watching for a >10 day forecast will quickly cause one to lose their minds.

Granted, I'm doing the same thing, so...

[AutoPenalti]

At this point it’s fantasy range, ridge breaks down with one ULL in the central Atlantic and a shortwave coming down the Dakotas, goes OTS.

[hurricaneCW]

Ensembles show broad east coast and west Atlantic ridging, I think future Humberto will be a big threat down the line.

Also the longer it takes to develop the bigger the threat will be.

[AtlanticWind]

HMON starts to get it going at 84 hours

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=99

HMON, well on its way at 99 hours 1000mb

[AtlanticWind]

HMON gets it to hurricane strength, HWRF doesn't yet develop it

Models support increasing

[AtlanticWind]

20/70 NHC at 2am

[WeatherEmperor]

Through 144hrs. Why is the Euro still so bearish on this system?




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