EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Eye really clearing out the past few frames:


I'm thinking they might go higher than 75kts in this coming advisory package. And then if it keeps it up, probably make it a major hurricane by the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming
apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON
are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been
raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth
hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some
additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind
shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a
little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A
faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is
forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once
again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little
south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward
initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being
steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which
should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There
continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with
the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the
guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC
track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast
is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional
adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the
confidence in the track forecast remains quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Astromanía]

It looks great! It can be stronger than Juliette

[Astromanía]

Whoa!

[Kingarabian]

Its Dvorak presentation continues to improve. Let's see if it can do enough by the next advisory.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2019 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 17:06:00 N Lon : 119:16:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +1.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

CI is still catching up on ADT, but the ADJ and Raw T's are now @ major hurricane strength.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2019 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 17:01:48 N Lon : 119:28:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.6 5.6

[Kingarabian]

Fresh SSMIS F-16 pass pretty much confirms that this is a major hurricane:

[Astromanía]

Is it going through an EWRC? or is just its eye struggling, anyway I hope it reaches major status, it would be the fourth of the season.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Corrected location coordinates

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane
Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher
intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which
will be issued before 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

Is it going through an EWRC? or is just its eye struggling, anyway I hope it reaches major status, it would be the fourth of the season.

A few hours ago it's west side was struggling but it seems to have fixed itself big time in recent frames.

[Chris90]

Is it going through an EWRC? or is just its eye struggling, anyway I hope it reaches major status, it would be the fourth of the season.

I don't think it's going through an EWRC yet. I think the core is just tightening up currently while also going through another big convective burst, which is clouding over and obscuring the shrinking eye.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 150034
TCSENP

A. 13E (KIKO)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 17.0N

D. 119.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN B, WHICH RESULTS
IN AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 AND NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 5.0. MET IS 4.5
AND PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Hammy]

That strengthened quite fast.

[DioBrando]

Kiko now a 115mph major

Looking fine.

[cycloneye]

Up to major cane and now it will ramp up a bit the ACE.

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[1900hurricane]

Hey look, a white ring.

[Astromanía]

Great! fourth major of the season and it appears we will see another one soon due to many invests in EPAC developing now in favorable areas, EPAC is really active now in September, ACE number will now increase in a higher rate.

[Kingarabian]

Still strengthening:

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2019 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 16:50:24 N Lon : 120:20:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized
by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70
degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial
intensity of 110 kt.

The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several
hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today,
and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this
afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes
challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken
Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase
in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no
other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for
Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also
interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the
forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places
Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over
warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the
previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but
at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest
forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours,
increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the
northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a
west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As
mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they
differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching
California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a
break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions
keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight
southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the
actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more
weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread
beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[NDG]

Wow, Kiko went from barely any convection to almost a Cat 4! One day we will get intensity forecasts right, lol.