ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:02 pm

xironman wrote:Well, there does not appear to be the "sinking air" problem

https://i.imgur.com/owWPXl6.gif


That's because the sinking air problem is easily overcome.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2619
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:03 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:Would be nice if this could get into the Gulf and consolidate into something weak enough to avoid damage, but wet enough to track north through Georgia because it's been absurdly hot and dry here.

I don't want it to form.
GOD FORBID this gets named.


95L just heard you, and now we’re all doomed. :lol:



95L has rather acute hearing, apparently. :lol:
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6355
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:04 pm

ECM OP looked like a sheared TS of 40mph and Gusts to near 60mph in the 12z run along the Emerald Coast from P'Cola to Destin.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:04 pm

This should get a decent boost of southerly inflow in a few hours once the convection of Hati and Cuba collapse.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:05 pm

xironman wrote:Well, there does not appear to be the "sinking air" problem

https://i.imgur.com/owWPXl6.gif


Looks good because of the diffluence.
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:15 pm

DioBrando wrote:
xironman wrote:
DioBrando wrote:GOOD.
do you have a map


Well kind of, this shows the pattern a 250MB, you can see the ULL go over FL, but there will probably be a high pressure to follow it.

https://i.imgur.com/l1IqwKU.gif

And what will the high pressure do


Upper level highs are associated with TCs while lows are not
1 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:16 pm

jasons wrote:Probably won’t do much until it gets to the gulf


Agree
0 likes   

sammy126
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:02 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby sammy126 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:00 pm

how did this low pressure become invest 95. not seeing anything about this on nhc? just wondering tia
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:05 pm

sammy126 wrote:how did this low pressure become invest 95. not seeing anything about this on nhc? just wondering tia


It's the westernmost yellow X on their map.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:17 pm

A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:29 pm

Honestly go away.
Have to pray the ULL shears this.
0 likes   
who can it be now
*du du du du du du*

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:34 pm

Checked and there's loads of shear in its path, up to 40kts of shear, shear tendency increasing in the general area and a wad of dry air in front of this system.
It'll be lucky to get TD status.
0 likes   
who can it be now
*du du du du du du*

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:39 pm

Wind shear map
Image
0 likes   
who can it be now
*du du du du du du*

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:41 pm

Dry air ahead:
Image

Yeah, if it forms, I don't see this as anything more than a TD. Gordon had better conditions than this IIRC.
0 likes   
who can it be now
*du du du du du du*

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#35 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/l1Q1a4r.png
they didn't waste any time going to mandarin
1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#36 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:08 pm

18z Euro has most of the vorticity over cuba for the next 24hrs.

low level turning south of cuba and between cuba and hati currently.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1968
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:14 pm

DioBrando wrote:Dry air ahead:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg

Yeah, if it forms, I don't see this as anything more than a TD. Gordon had better conditions than this IIRC.

That's not very much dry air.

SHIPS mid-level RH is a little dry, but not enough to outright arrest development. I would not be surprised to see a named storm out of this.

700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 52 53 53 55 55 57 57 63 64 66
2 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
HurricaneAndre2008
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 250
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:51 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:19 pm

Any thoughts on current stats at 00Z?
0 likes   
Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:33 pm

Broad Anti-cyclone over this with a poleward outflow channel.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:37 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2019091100, , BEST, 0, 218N, 720W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests