ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1041 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:39 pm

Dang, looks like Humberto is still easily a cat 3 based on Recon and Bermuda observations despite the degrading appearance. Wonder if it's even stronger than we thought.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1042 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:57 pm

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1043 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:00 pm

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1044 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:01 pm

Yeaaah that's approaching Fabian level of wind from what I assumed would be a sideswipe outside the eyewall. Might be the biggest hit this decade which is wild from the marginal structure it's got going on right now. It looked twice as imposing as a barely designated cat one but looks are deceiving in the northern part of the basin. I'm trying to think, I don't think Gonzalo or Nicole produced many gusts that high and I can't recall a stronger hit since 2003, so definitely a pretty big deal.

Then again... Juan returned under the guise of Dorian this year for Nova Scotia, so I guess it's fitting that Fabian returns too. 2003 all over again in this part of the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1045 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:16 pm

Image

Image

SFMR winds up to 105kt in the SW eyewall/band. It actually looks somewhat like a sting jet feature. Very interesting structure for a NE moving storm.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1046 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:24 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Yeaaah that's approaching Fabian level of wind from what I assumed would be a sideswipe outside the eyewall. Might be the biggest hit this decade which is wild from the marginal structure it's got going on right now. It looked twice as imposing as a barely designated cat one but looks are deceiving in the northern part of the basin. I'm trying to think, I don't think Gonzalo or Nicole produced many gusts that high and I can't recall a stronger hit since 2003, so definitely a pretty big deal.

Then again... Juan returned under the guise of Dorian this year for Nova Scotia, so I guess it's fitting that Fabian returns too. 2003 all over again in this part of the Atlantic.


Just had the exact same thought!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1047 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:57 pm

Non-suspect SFMR reading of 113 kt in the SE quad.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1048 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:02 pm

I don’t recall off the top of my head seeing a hurricane this strong under going extratropical transition. I know it’s expected to weaken, but so far if anything the baroclinic energy coupled with the high water temps is still maintaining an intense storm.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1049 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:05 pm

FL is over 120 kt, SFMR is almost 115 kt
This may be Cat 4 or on the cusp :double:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1050 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:14 pm

Big drop

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1051 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:18 pm

Dropsonde and 700 mb wind both support 110 kt and SFMR supports up to 115 kt.

Huh. Who'd have thought.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1052 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:18 pm

Dropsonde suggests Humberto has become a Cat 4. 114 knots at the surface.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1053 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:21 pm

Could this be a combination of baroclinic forcing, which is causing some strengthening, and increasing forward speed that is making the southern eyewall so strong? The RF quadrant is the SE side, which is moving with the forward motion and not against it.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1054 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:01 pm

I think Humberto should be upgraded to CAT4 in TCR. Recon data conclusively supports it
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1055 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:10 pm

Other than perhaps Hurricane Hazel in 1954 (and there was no satellite to prove it), I can't think of any storm that was a cat 4 in the extratropical transition phase. I agree with at least 110 kt though.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1056 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:34 pm

The VDM on the 113 kt pass fixed the center at 33.93ºN. There are very few category 4s in best track to have occurred at 33.9ºN or further north. The most recent was Diana in 1984.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1057 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:56 am

Yeah I don't recall a modern hurricane being boosted that much baroclinically either. Obviously being in the right rear of a jet max is helping it tremendously but usually that's in the form of slower weakening, not jumping almost a whole category when it's already a major; just don't see a storm this intense continue to intensify or even hold steady near the cat 4 threshold (and despite plausible evidence and even a pressure to support it I kinda doubt they'll make that jump til the postseason if at all) when beginning extratropical transition often. Might join Hazel and the Long Island Express in that rare category. Super fascinating, but extraordinarily bad news for Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1058 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:33 am

Lots of tree damage and multiple roofs were taken off. Definitely a worse storm than Nicole 2016. Very fast and intense.
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Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1059 Postby Nawtamet » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:37 am

Kazmit wrote:Lots of tree damage and multiple roofs were taken off. Definitely a worse storm than Nicole 2016. Very fast and intense.



Hope there are no reports of injuries or loss of life.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1060 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:08 am

Kazmit wrote:Lots of tree damage and multiple roofs were taken off. Definitely a worse storm than Nicole 2016. Very fast and intense.


I was just looking at Nicole on Wikipedia (Forgot about it among Fabian, Fay and Gonzalo) and came on here to ask the Bermudian posters who have been there for both how Humberto compared. It looks like the angle of approach was similar but a little to the south of Humberto, meaning that although the eye approached closer the territory was mostly on the left side of the storm, which may be why the impacts weren't as bad.

Image
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