ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#81 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:13 am

and i oop
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40 knots of shear in the gulf and the shear tendency map has it increasing
Last edited by DioBrando on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#82 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:16 am

Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#83 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:17 am

StormPyrate wrote:Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?

Here you go!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
I'm glad the shear is forecast to increase.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#84 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am

GCANE wrote:Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.


Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#85 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:33 am

GCANE wrote:
GCANE wrote:Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.


Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.


Massive lightning now.
Strong cirrus outflow with small gravity waves.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#86 Postby tpr1967 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:39 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#87 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:39 am

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#88 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:45 am

So what's keeping this one from Texas, the Death Ridge?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#89 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:50 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#90 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:55 am

DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.


I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#91 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:56 am

DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#92 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:59 am

I'm thinking code red at the 5 day next outlook.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#93 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:06 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

Proof?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#94 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:07 am

ronjon wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.


I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.

Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#95 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:08 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.


It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#96 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:09 am

SoupBone wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
DioBrando wrote:Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.


It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#97 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:11 am

DioBrando wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.


It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....


Increasing shear today does not mean increasing shear in 3 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#98 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:17 am

StormPyrate wrote:Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?


Favoring stockings or the entire outfit?
:sun:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#99 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:17 am

DioBrando wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.


It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....


I definitely understand. But shear is a fickle thing, and hopefully it does increase and keep this system in check. The ebb and flow of shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#100 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:24 am

DioBrando wrote:
ronjon wrote:
DioBrando wrote:Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.


I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.

Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?


Meaning it will take extra time to organize - think most models keep it relatively weak because of this and it eventually runs out of real estate along the northern gulf coast.
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