ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#981 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:54 pm

JahJa wrote:Given that it is still over warmer SST for a while yet what do you think the chances of it strengthening to a Cat 4 are?

I doubt it- it's a large hurricane so the pressure would have to be very low for that to happen.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#982 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:54 pm

Kazmit wrote:
JahJa wrote:Given that it is still over warmer SST for a while yet what do you think the chances of it strengthening to a Cat 4 are?

I doubt it- it's a large hurricane so the pressure would have to be very low for that to happen.


People were just saying it couldn't reach cat 3 yet here we are. I wouldn't count Humberto out yet!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#983 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:55 pm

JahJa wrote:Given that it is still over warmer SST for a while yet what do you think the chances of it strengthening to a Cat 4 are?

50/50? 60/40?
But again he is determined to push boundaries!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:58 pm

Bermuda circled.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#985 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:31 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#986 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:40 pm

Link to the Bermuda radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.as ... 0SRI&user=

Just rain bands for now, but should be able to see the eye on there tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#987 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:53 pm

I'm usually pretty reluctant to say it, but Humberto seems to be showing some structural characteristics that make me want to throw around the A-word. Between the proportionately large eye, decrease in convective bands, Humberto is becoming a solid candidate for annularity. Plus, the location of the storm is in the general area where most Atlantic annular hurricanes tend to show these characteristics.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#988 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:03 pm

Convection is getting pretty intense around the eye now. Making a run for Cat 4?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#989 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:16 pm

FL winds in southern eyewall over 110 kt, MSLP is sub 950.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#990 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:30 pm

latest floaters show a very pretty boy
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#991 Postby sponger » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:58 pm

What an amazing year having two very symmetrical storms. I wonder if the unfolding grand solar minimum has anything to do with it. No satellites for the last one but we know there were epic hurricanes in the 16th and 17th centuries. Who knows what the impact of increased cosmic rays have on storm formation and intensity. I hope someone is studying the issue. We have another 35 years of this so it would be nice to know if this is what we can expect or just an anomaly. Let's hope it is the latter.
Last edited by sponger on Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#992 Postby sponger » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:59 pm

[quote="DioBrando"]latest floaters show a very pretty boy


Just wow!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#993 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:12 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:I'm usually pretty reluctant to say it, but Humberto seems to be showing some structural characteristics that make me want to throw around the A-word. Between the proportionately large eye, decrease in convective bands, Humberto is becoming a solid candidate for annularity. Plus, the location of the storm is in the general area where most Atlantic annular hurricanes tend to show these characteristics.


They gave it zero two days ago out of 100. Be interesting to see what they show tomorrow. Certainly not a lot of banding and a tight core.


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/190 ... _ships.txt
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#994 Postby sikkar » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:10 am

Looks like it's undergoing EWRC.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:28 am

bob rulz wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
JahJa wrote:Given that it is still over warmer SST for a while yet what do you think the chances of it strengthening to a Cat 4 are?

I doubt it- it's a large hurricane so the pressure would have to be very low for that to happen.


People were just saying it couldn't reach cat 3 yet here we are. I wouldn't count Humberto out yet!


I was one of those. :D

I think there's a good shot if it can keep it's present structure going for another day or so, but the question this time is will there be any recon to catch it if it does?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#996 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:31 am

Looks like the eye just collapsed in on itself on the IR loop, but there's another surge of deep convection wrapping around the west side. I often find EWRC call posts excessive but this combined with the microwave image above is solid evidence for one.

Some storms get stuck in daylong EWRCs because the inner eyewall fights to survive, others gradually decay starting with an EWRC because they move into less favorable conditions at the same time. In Humberto's case it looks like the old/inner eyewall capitulated pretty quickly (going off IR) and the new/outer eyewall should have enough time to tighten up before the shear really hits it to allow it to maintain 100-105kt MH intensity for another day or so.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#997 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:39 am

tolakram wrote:Bermuda circled.

https://i.imgur.com/5h3j8fm.png


Amazing comparison of how large Humberto is to the dot which is Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#998 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:06 am

Is that a massive eye attempting to clear out? Would be 50 miles across.

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#999 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:24 am

Humberto

What an impressive tropical cyclone! My Lord we have witnessed two of the most beautiful and impressive tropical cyclones probably ever on satellite imo in the North Atlantic basin these past three weeks with Dorian and this cyclone Humberto.It never ever gets tiresome to me seeing the beautiful satellite presentations of these systems. Just simply awesome!! The Medussas of the Earth!! Beautiful but deadly!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1000 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:25 am

Humberto looks lie a reg Cat 3ish type cyclone to me. Very Jeanne looking.
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