ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:04 pm

Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MOdels

#2 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:21 pm

The unreliable ICON is strongly giving way to the consensus on the 18Z run with the main low pressure well out into the Gulf finally. Now the Gulf consensus is stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:49 pm

12z Euro ensembles.. seems to be a pretty good agreement on a n. central GOM threat and weak at this point.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:51 pm

If it does form then I hope it remains a TD.
Just like how GFS predicts.
I will rip my hair off if this is correct:
Image

Nobody needs a TS right now!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#6 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:43 pm

DioBrando wrote:If it does form then I hope it remains a TD.
Just like how GFS predicts.
I will rip my hair off if this is correct:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_intensity_latest.png

Nobody needs a TS right now!
no need to rip your hair out, you live in italy, it isnt affecting you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:46 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:If it does form then I hope it remains a TD.
Just like how GFS predicts.
I will rip my hair off if this is correct:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_intensity_latest.png

Nobody needs a TS right now!
no need to rip your hair out, you live in italy, it isnt affecting you

My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#8 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:51 pm

Yesterday had more to the west will know more by Friday
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#9 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:05 pm

DioBrando wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:If it does form then I hope it remains a TD.
Just like how GFS predicts.
I will rip my hair off if this is correct:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_intensity_latest.png

Nobody needs a TS right now!
no need to rip your hair out, you live in italy, it isnt affecting you

My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
Ok, she was fortunate with dorian.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#10 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:07 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:no need to rip your hair out, you live in italy, it isnt affecting you

My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
Ok, she was fortunate with dorian.

She contacted me but she said she doesn't want to put up with things like that ever again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:40 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#12 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:24 pm

Does anybody have the text output from SHIPS intensity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:32 pm

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952019 09/11/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 45 50 57 58 63 65 67
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 45 50 57 48 56 58 48
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 34 36 39 36 42 47 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 22 18 16 20 15 17 15 17 17 13 16 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 -1 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 241 253 257 236 220 256 239 270 253 259 246 236 211
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.8 30.9 29.9 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 163 166 167 167 171 172 172 169 168
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 145 143 144 147 146 148 153 171 171 150 147
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 7
700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 53 54 55 57 53 56 58 62 64 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 10 12
850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 -6 9 12 2 11 14 10 -2 12 -14 -14
200 MB DIV 14 -5 6 12 2 13 11 -9 13 13 33 23 44
700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 -4 1 -4 1 -3 2 5 6 7
LAND (KM) 220 222 243 235 229 234 264 244 142 -11 58 98 -44
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.6 27.0 28.9 30.9
LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.2 73.8 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.6 79.1 81.2 83.1 84.8 86.3
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 9 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 63 62 61 65 70 75 78 91 77 53 70 31 30

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 20. 25. 32. 33. 38. 40. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 72.0

** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.6% 12.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.3% 13.1% 6.9% 3.4% 1.6% 8.0% 13.1% 29.9%
Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.3% 11.0% 6.7% 4.1% 0.5% 2.7% 8.4% 10.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/11/2019 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 37 45 50 57 48 56 58 48
18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 34 42 47 54 45 53 55 45
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 37 42 49 40 48 50 40
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 28 33 40 31 39 41 31
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby StormTracker » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:42 pm

DioBrando wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
Ok, she was fortunate with dorian.

She contacted me but she said she doesn't want to put up with things like that ever again.

Unfortunately when you live in Florida, it's par for the course! We're the fork in the road.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#15 Postby Abdullah » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:49 pm

DioBrando wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
Ok, she was fortunate with dorian.

She contacted me but she said she doesn't want to put up with things like that ever again.


Ah... New to Florida, I see...
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#16 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:59 pm

DioBrando wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DioBrando wrote:My big sister's in law lives in Northern Florida.
Ok, she was fortunate with dorian.

She contacted me but she said she doesn't want to put up with things like that ever again.

then why did she move to florida? if she doesnt wanna deal with hurricanes then maybe she should move
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#17 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:02 pm

SHIPs bringing it up to hurricane strength with 65 kt winds in 120 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#18 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:37 pm

On the 18Z EPS I see 8 full fledged TCs. Of those 8, 5 have genesis in the GOM. These hit anywhere from TX to the FL panhandle. But interestingly, there still are 3 in the other camp well east with genesis E of FL. Actually, the strongest of all 51 members (a H) recurved off the SE coast and never makes landfall. The other 2 skirt up the FL coast into E GA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#19 Postby marco_islander » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:32 pm

arghhhhhh
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#20 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:52 pm

new gfs show low east of keys but displear as get closer to keysImage
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