ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[SFLcane]

Worth watching but it's not the dominant solution at all. Low probability chance

[rbaker55]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png

those plots are based 75 miles too far NE of the surface LLC. Just my opinion, but until this potential whatever consolidates its anyones guess. The more time it takes to move whatever escape route may close off and miss the weakness.

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png

those plots are based 75 miles too far NE of the surface LLC. Just my opinion, but until this potential whatever consolidates its anyones guess. The more time it takes to move whatever escape route may close off and miss the weakness.

The trick to this is.. by the next model cycle Td9 will not be at the next forecast point of the models so the models will re-initialize back south which in essence slows down the timing of the ridge building.

the more td9 move slowly the more likely of a stall/loop increases.

[rbaker55]

NHC now has the cone at least 100 miles east of FL, rather surprised they designated it a TD with the lack of organization

[GeneratorPower]

How people can come to a conclusion that the storm has a defined path out to sea when it hasn't even fully developed yet is beyond me. Especially given the pattern this storm is going to be in? Wait until we have a well defined center before saying you know where this thing is going. There's quite a few meteorologists saying that this has a chance to impact the east coast, but at the same time it could go out to sea too. I feel like this conversation always happens early on before a storm truly forms.

I think it is quite reasonable to conclude an out-to-sea track or at least an away-from-the-US track is very, very likely. Model plots like 12z EURO support this. The fact it hasn't totally developed yet means very little at this point. And it's a TD now (though not officially at the time of your post). Models should have a very good handle on the situation at this point.

[DioBrando]

HEH

[Aric Dunn]

well the GFS initialized correctly it seems.. so at least there is that.

[boulderrr]

18Z GFS is quite a bit east of the 12Z through 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

18z is much slower than 12z

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFS is quite a bit east of the 12Z through 24 hours.

SE ..its moving wnw to nw. so its slower.

[sponger]

18z GFS scraping Florida? But I thought this one was done???

[Aric Dunn]

18z is much stronger ,slower ,and much farther south. and initialized it correctly.

[Frank2]

GFS shows it closer to NE FL but also shows lots of weakness to its north before the next trough - my guess the NHC will adjust the track to show a OTS not quite as sharp but still OTS.

[Aric Dunn]

72 hours the ridge to the east and SE weakens and shifts to it's SW ridge sliding east over ohio valley.. Loop ?

[Blown Away]

18z is much stronger ,slower ,and much farther south. and initialized it correctly.

Once above 30N very unlikely to loop back towards FL... Likely escapes from current position...

[Aric Dunn]

nope looks like it makes the connection. but it was very close..

again I bet a bunch of ensemble members loop back.

[LarryWx]

18Z ICON & Legacy avoid US landfall

[DioBrando]

HWRF model run, baby

[DioBrando]

Juicy

[Kazmit]

18z GFS is quite a bit stronger. Cat 3.