ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[Steve]

UK may be showing its occasional eastern bias ahead of formation. NHC has 5 day cone roughly 25 to 30 N and 87-90 W. Some of it is inland on the FL Coast, but they clearly weren’t buying a recurve in the 8pm update. Maybe it will change at 2 some?

[fci]

I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to ther other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.

Models vary, some more accurate than others of course; but at the end of the day we need to rely on the NHC and Pro Mets for their best forecast (guess). They are right a whole lot more then random models and know which ones are most reliable based on conditions present and inputs.

You don't think I am aware of this fact being in this profession. Trust me , I know a couple of people who work at NHC who I went to met school at my time at FSU. I know they are the experts.on this firsthand.

I am just speaking about how I do my analysis with my job and to give us as much as we can really from all of the models and all other technological advances to use at our disposal to make me better and all other pros and analysts alike to make us the better always in forecasting.

We are not in disagreement here at all.

[watsx2]

Can anyone post a current models pic.....tbh....I dont know how to do it on tropical tidbits

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.

[SoupBone]

0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.

wxman57 kept hinting at additional eastward swings, though he never said frequency or degree.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.

wxman57 kept hinting at additional eastward swings, though he never said frequency or degree.

I agree with him. The westerly wind shear affecting the system will likely lead to eastward shifts in the track. The chances of this system reaching the Gulf of Mexico are decreasing.

[AtlanticWind]

I would still lean toward the GFS at this point, UKMET, Canadian are strengthening quite a bit
more and I think that is why they are taking the system further north and east
They could be right , but my thinking is that this devoleps more slowly.

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF brings 95l inland near Broward palm beach line as maybe a weak T.S.
HMON a little further north maybe Ft pierce and a little stronger

[Bigwhitey]

What’s curious to me is that the models seem to be trending eastward, but the NHC is firm with a westward bend in the track.

I guess the NHC tends to wait for a consistent run of models showing the same solution over a period of time. Just my opinion

[LarryWx]

the 0Z Euro looks to be quite a bit east of the 12Z!

[STRiZZY]

Big shift east for the ECMWF 0z

[SouthFLTropics]

Big shift East, stronger, and dangerously close to the one place in the entire planet that can’t even withstand an afternoon shower right now, much less an organizing tropical system.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 72HRs

[STRiZZY]

Big shift East, stronger, and dangerously close to the one place in the entire planet that can’t even withstand an afternoon shower right now, much less an organizing tropical system.

I've never been one to wish a storm away from where I live or from a particular location ever as I wouldn't feel right wishing anyone else to be struck. The Euro looks to take it over Abaco (or very very close) and that's just cruel. I hope for a trend back west or better yet even further east OTS.

[SouthFLTropics]

When I look at how this is evolving I can’t help but think of Tropical Storm Jerry from years ago...either 94 or 95 I think.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 96HRS

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro a near stall at 96+ 125 miles east of Jax.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well this Euro run is sure to catch a few S2K’ers by surprise in the AM.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 120HRS

[Hammy]

Well this is quite the surprising run.