ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[somethingfunny]

Rough run for the Bahamas with yet another one looking to come over them after 95L does.

[SouthFLTropics]

95L looks to have nowhere to go but the mid-Atlantic and New England.

[aperson]

Well this is quite the surprising run.

You can say that again. The strength, the high phasing in and stopping the capture while steering it back toward the Mid-Atlantic. Looks like we're setting up for an exhausting year.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 216HRS

Landfall in SNJ

Another TC moving into the Bahamas

[SouthFLTropics]

What would be the odds that South Florida and Mid Atlantic/New England could be getting hit at that same time? It’s got to be up there in the Powerball range.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that on any model run. That frame needs to be saved for historic purposes.

[aperson]

Maybe I'm oversimplifying how I'm seeing this but unless Invest 95L is very fast or very east this synoptic setup has Mid-Atlantic threat written all over it. Guess we'll have to see how the vort develops first.

[AtlanticWind]

That was a strange run. We will see what the 12z does
My bet would be a very different run

Models are struggling with 95 l at this point

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can we talk about the Euro and cmc sending 2 hurricanes through the bahamas in one run? brutal

[LarryWx]

This storm has already been mind boggling and it still hasn’t formed yet!

[AtlanticWind]

Euro had a much deeper trough in the Midwest at 8 to 10 days on this run
Inconsistent to say the least.

[northjaxpro]

WOW! I wake up from a nap to seeng the 00Z EURO taking yet another massive shift east, Talk about insane cruelty what the 00Z EURO.is depicting, having future Humberto be right back bearing down on the NW Bahamas. This is added salt to the terrible wounds his monster brother Dorian inflicted if this verifies. GOD FORBID!!!!

At this point it is becoming increasingly more and more probable now that this system will not make it into the GOM.

Remember what I have been saying throughout this week since Sunday that I had a.very un-settling and bad ibe about this particular storm all along? Well, these recent developments of the past 24 hours with the models really shows why my feelings have been spot on to this juncture.

Well, let us hope and pray that this EURO run does not verify because the Bahamian people don't need anything like this right now. PERIOD!

[ColdFront77]

This storm has already been mind boggling and it still hasn’t formed yet!

That is pretty much why. Models tend not to have a grasp on systems in this and similar states.

[Kingarabian]

Wow the 00z Euro is nuts.

[Blown Away]

the 0Z Euro looks to be quite a bit east of the 12Z!

Florida peninsula is becoming a ping pong paddle. Storms get to the coast than bing they go NE...

[South Texas Storms]

Most of the 0z Euro Ensemble members are now east of Florida, similar to the 0z operational Euro.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro ensemble says that the operational's big shift east is quite possibly for real. It has a huge shift east vs the 18Z with nearly all staying on the E side of FL initially. Then after getting blocked/slowed by the very strong high to the north while off of N FL/GA/S SC, they do all sorts of things once moving again from turning E OTS to turning N up into SC or NC to skirting the NE US to turning W to WNW into SC, GA, or N FL.

[northjaxpro]

Well Larry, after seeing this EURO run, I have no doubt that the TCVN will most definitely be shifted rather appreciably to the east more now. I have to be inclined to think that cone will look quite a bit different on the next TWO update.

[LarryWx]

In all of my years of following model runs for the tropics, I don't know that I've seen a bigger change of an ensemble run in just 24 hours. The 0Z EPS of yesterday had most members moving WNW through S FL and then further WNW into the corridor from far W FL to E LA. Now, just 24 hours later, practically all of the members move northward off of the E coast of FL by 100+ miles!

[northjaxpro]

In all of my years of following model runs for the tropics, I don't know that I've seen a bigger change of an ensemble run in just 24 hours. The 0Z EPS of yesterday had most members moving WNW through S FL and then further WNW into the corridor from far W FL to E LA. Now, just 24 hours later, practically all of the members move northward off of the E coast of FL by 100+ miles!

Yeah I am with you. It is mindblowing seeing such a massive turnaround with the model runs and its rnsembles in just 24 hours!! It almost leaves you speechless.

However, and I touched on this last night, but it deserves mention again. ICON sniffed out the north and eastward evolution before all the other reliable models on this. The ICON gets my tip of the hat for sure in leading the.way on this situation.

[xironman]

lol Euro shift