ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#121 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:15 pm

Looking at this I think the surface low keeps tracking more WNW with the mid level getting sheared to the north or NE, so we keep seeing a redevelopment in sorts more in line with NHC thinking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#122 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:17 pm

12Z COAMPS:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#123 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:24 pm

chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

https://i.imgur.com/yqqu4S4.png


Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#124 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:33 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

https://i.imgur.com/yqqu4S4.png


Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


NNW along the coast. It ends up at Daytona at hour 90.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#125 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:34 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

https://i.imgur.com/yqqu4S4.png


Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and east shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this solution from the start.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#126 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:37 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

https://i.imgur.com/yqqu4S4.png


Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this dolution from the start.


That's what they all said when ICON kept shoving Dorian through Miami...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#127 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:41 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this dolution from the start.


That's what they all said when ICON kept shoving Dorian through Miami...


Yeah, but the major reliable models currently are now for the moment jumping on with ICON . I am not scoffng at the model like some of you are out there.

Until I see EURO , GFS, UKMET shift back left or west, I am not discounting the ICON.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#128 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:42 pm

:uarrow: just take the consensus of the Euro and GFS and you will be right 99% of the time :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#129 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:45 pm

TCVN shifted N to Martin County area and never makes back to gulf..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#130 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:47 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this dolution from the start.


That's what they all said when ICON kept shoving Dorian through Miami...


Yeah, but the major reliable models currently are now for the moment jumping on with ICON . I am not scoffng at the model like some of you are out there.

Until I see EURO , GFS, UKMET shift back left or west, I am not discounting the ICON.


I'm not snuffing ICON, I'm just saying it doesn't belong in the same sentence as the other models you mentioned. UKMET and ECMWF agreeing on a NE Florida scenario alone is enough to warrant your attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#131 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#132 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:09 pm

I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to the other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#133 Postby fci » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:18 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to ther other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


Models vary, some more accurate than others of course; but at the end of the day we need to rely on the NHC and Pro Mets for their best forecast (guess). They are right a whole lot more then random models and know which ones are most reliable based on conditions present and inputs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#134 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:28 pm

fci wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to ther other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


Models vary, some more accurate than others of course; but at the end of the day we need to rely on the NHC and Pro Mets for their best forecast (guess). They are right a whole lot more then random models and know which ones are most reliable based on conditions present and inputs.


You don't think I am aware of this fact being in this profession. Trust me , I know a couple of people who work at NHC who I went to met school at my time at FSU. I know they are the experts.on this firsthand.

I am just speaking about how I do my analysis with my job and to give us as much as we can really from all of the models and all other technological advances to use at our disposal to make me better and all other pros and analysts alike to make us the better always in forecasting.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#135 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:29 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

https://i.imgur.com/yqqu4S4.png


Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and east shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this solution from the start.


Jax,
You’re not going to like (and same for me) the 18Z Euro ensemble. There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall). Mean rainfall max for the 51 members is a whopping 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA!
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#136 Postby Cat5James » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:35 pm

LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and east shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this solution from the start.


Jax,
You’re not going to like (and same for me) the 18Z Euro ensemble. There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall. Mean rainfall is 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.


Can you share the ensembles?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#137 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:36 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to the other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


I'm guessing that what ICON may have sniffed out ahead of time was early development of the cyclone, and that's what may have resulted in its earlier call for NE track. And if that's what ends up happening it deserves kudos imo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#138 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:39 pm

LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:
Thanks for posting. What direction is it heading on this frame?


This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and east shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this solution from the start.


Jax,
You’re not going to like (and same for me) the 18Z Euro ensemble. There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall. Mean rainfall is 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.


Thanks Larry. Yeah I saw the 18Z EURO come in and yeah I am growing more concerned with this now established trend we have seen with the north and east shift with the big reliables. TCVN is what.I am closely watching now Larry. I want to see just how much farther north and east the TCVN may shift. This will be quite telling for me if I see the TCVN move right as we progress in time.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#139 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:40 pm

It’s all good North Jax. I know what you’re saying but fci was just stating facts about an inferior model that hasn’t been doing that great and is a lower tier with a **** ton to prove. It’s worthy of discussion in any given model thread based on how it does and how it should be considered. Speaking of AA ball, Nam is rolling. I want to see what it does with the 84 hours it shows, as we are potentially within that time frame for impacts, and what does its depiction of them look like east of, across, or just south of Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#140 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:45 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to the other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


I keep it simple now, the best forecasters in the world base a track usually very close to the TVCN Consensus, so just follow that little gray line and you will be good. :D

00z TVCN says @Ft Lauderdale/Boca Raton area...
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