ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#141 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:45 pm

Cat5James wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
This continues several run cycles of EURO since last night with north and east shifts. This also continues with the models (UKMET and GFS in standing.pat as well) with IÇON with sticking to this solution..

I will say this. Should the ICON end up being right about this, you have to tip your hat to the model in this instance or having this solution from the start.


Jax,
You’re not going to like (and same for me) the 18Z Euro ensemble. There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall. Mean rainfall is 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.


Can you share the ensembles?


I can’t because it is from a private, paid source. So, the best I can do is to describe what I saw.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#142 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Cat5James wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Jax,
You’re not going to like (and same for me) the 18Z Euro ensemble. There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall. Mean rainfall is 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.


Can you share the ensembles?


I can’t because it is from a private, paid source. So, the best I can do is to describe what I saw.


Larry, when you say significantly stronger, we are still only talking about TS strength or nah?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#143 Postby Cat5James » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:53 pm

sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Cat5James wrote:
Can you share the ensembles?


I can’t because it is from a private, paid source. So, the best I can do is to describe what I saw.


Larry, when you say significantly stronger, we are still only talking about TS strength or nah?

Latest intensity forecasts seem to all agree on at least a low end TS by the time in impacts the East coast of FL (50-60 hours from now)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#144 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:54 pm

Steve wrote:It’s all good North Jax. I know what you’re saying but fci was just stating facts about an inferior model that hasn’t been doing that great and is a lower tier with a **** ton to prove. It’s worthy of discussion in any given model thread based on how it does and how it should be considered. Speaking of AA ball, Nam is rolling. I want to see what it does with the 84 hours it shows, as we are potentially within that time frame for impacts, and what does its depiction of them look like east of, across, or just south of Florida.


South Florida is likely going to potentially see heavy rainfall especially Friday through the weekend. Much will depend on how the track evolution ends up with regards to how strong to potential wind impacts will be down that way. We will have a better idea hopefully by this time tomorrow evening how this will evolve with 95L 's track and intensity . Still lots of uncertainty at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#145 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:59 pm

sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Cat5James wrote:
Can you share the ensembles?


I can’t because it is from a private, paid source. So, the best I can do is to describe what I saw.


Larry, when you say significantly stronger, we are still only talking about TS strength or nah?


Whereas before most members were TD to minimal TS, now many are solid TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#146 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:06 pm

Blown Away wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to the other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


I keep it simple now, the best forecasters in the world base a track usually very close to the TVCN Consensus, so just follow that little gray line and you will be good. :D

00z TVCN says @Ft Lauderdale/Boca Raton area...


Yep. I agree. I just mentioned the TCVN in one of my earlier posts on this page or the previous page.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#147 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:19 pm

TVCN is usually a safe bet and a solid go to consensus. It’s not 100%, but you probably don’t go too wrong with it most of the time.

Nam 3km is jumping around a bit. it starts sending lighter bands into all of peninsular Florida through where it’s at. 12km is out to 48 hours and depicts a small area of concentration in the Bahamas with a lot of rain trailing back off to the sse.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#148 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:29 pm

NAM much more defined through 60 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#149 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:50 pm

Yeah it’s crosses SFL but is equally focused on the forerunner upper low or cutoff or whatever it is by 84hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#150 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:50 pm

The models are still evolving...dont get complacent on intensity.

It could get out of control quick. The last storm named humberto went from some low level clouds to a 80mph cane in 24 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#151 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:54 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:The models are still evolving...dont get complacent on intensity.

It could get out of control quick. The last storm named humberto went from some low level clouds to a 80mph cane in 24 hours

Yes it did!! Remember it well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#152 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Early maps of the 0Z ICON suggest there may a slight east shift vs the prior run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#153 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:Early maps of the 0Z ICON suggest there may a slight east shift vs the prior run.


Lol the icon avoids FL all completely
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#154 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:08 pm

Icon reimagines the Dorian track, but intensifies it in whatever they call the bend at the NEFL/GA coast. It also seems to want to slightly develop the Gulf low as it heads north toward SE TX.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#155 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:17 pm

Models seem to strengthen 95L a little more with each run... Landfall in Central Fl leaves 95L over those steamy Gulfstream waters longer compared to SFL landfall...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#156 Postby Nederlander » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:33 pm

What’s curious to me is that the models seem to be trending eastward, but the NHC is firm with a westward bend in the track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#157 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:37 pm

ICON at hr129 deeping rapidly now and at a crawl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#158 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:41 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:The models are still evolving...dont get complacent on intensity.

It could get out of control quick. The last storm named humberto went from some low level clouds to a 80mph cane in 24 hours


You skipped 2013 Humberto lol.

(Although who would remember that one, tbh)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#159 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:42 pm

Early 0Z GFS maps suggest it will be a little east of its 18Z run. Let’s see.

Edit: no, about same as 18Z.

Edit 2: Legacy also not further east. So, there is a large dichotomy in the model tracks with GFS so far west of ICON.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#160 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:03 pm

00z GFS is the same as 18z GFS regarding South Florida impacts. A little more west on the Central Gulf Coast impact as a broad low.

00z UKMET goes full recurve.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.2N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 26.2N 76.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 27.2N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 28.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 30.0N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 31.4N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 32.5N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 33.3N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 33.7N 73.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 33.9N 69.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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