ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#161 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:10 pm

UK may be showing its occasional eastern bias ahead of formation. NHC has 5 day cone roughly 25 to 30 N and 87-90 W. Some of it is inland on the FL Coast, but they clearly weren’t buying a recurve in the 8pm update. Maybe it will change at 2 some?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#162 Postby fci » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:15 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
fci wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I am sick of these ridiculous model wars on these forums. I use these models for what they each are designed for, which is to help me and others in the difficult task of forecasting these cyclones.

ICON in this case to this point was the first to see the potential evolution of this system shifting north and east before the big reliable models were able to do so to this juncture. I give the model due credit for doing this to this juncture.

Could it shift back left with the other big reliables? Of course. But so far after several cycles that has not happened.

I have or not once am proclaiming ICON to be this superior model to ther other big reliables. Too many people get so emotionally wrapped up.in certain models in that personally it gets too much on here for me at times.

If ICON ends up being as close to being right about this, just give it proper acknowledgment and feel good that we have at least another model in which we can look at and have a little more credibility for monitoring future storms.

This is all I am saying about the matter for Pete's sake.


Models vary, some more accurate than others of course; but at the end of the day we need to rely on the NHC and Pro Mets for their best forecast (guess). They are right a whole lot more then random models and know which ones are most reliable based on conditions present and inputs.


You don't think I am aware of this fact being in this profession. Trust me , I know a couple of people who work at NHC who I went to met school at my time at FSU. I know they are the experts.on this firsthand.

I am just speaking about how I do my analysis with my job and to give us as much as we can really from all of the models and all other technological advances to use at our disposal to make me better and all other pros and analysts alike to make us the better always in forecasting.


We are not in disagreement here at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#163 Postby watsx2 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:29 pm

Can anyone post a current models pic.....tbh....I dont know how to do it on tropical tidbits

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#164 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:33 pm

0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#165 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:47 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.


wxman57 kept hinting at additional eastward swings, though he never said frequency or degree.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#166 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:49 pm

SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z Canadian with a significant eastward shift as well...rides up the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm.


wxman57 kept hinting at additional eastward swings, though he never said frequency or degree.


I agree with him. The westerly wind shear affecting the system will likely lead to eastward shifts in the track. The chances of this system reaching the Gulf of Mexico are decreasing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#167 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:05 am

I would still lean toward the GFS at this point, UKMET, Canadian are strengthening quite a bit
more and I think that is why they are taking the system further north and east
They could be right , but my thinking is that this devoleps more slowly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#168 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:10 am

HWRF brings 95l inland near Broward palm beach line as maybe a weak T.S.
HMON a little further north maybe Ft pierce and a little stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#169 Postby Bigwhitey » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:13 am

Nederlander wrote:What’s curious to me is that the models seem to be trending eastward, but the NHC is firm with a westward bend in the track.

I guess the NHC tends to wait for a consistent run of models showing the same solution over a period of time. Just my opinion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#170 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:01 am

the 0Z Euro looks to be quite a bit east of the 12Z!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#171 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:02 am

Image

Big shift east for the ECMWF 0z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#172 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:08 am

Big shift East, stronger, and dangerously close to the one place in the entire planet that can’t even withstand an afternoon shower right now, much less an organizing tropical system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#173 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:08 am

Image

ECMWF 72HRs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#174 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:12 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Big shift East, stronger, and dangerously close to the one place in the entire planet that can’t even withstand an afternoon shower right now, much less an organizing tropical system.


I've never been one to wish a storm away from where I live or from a particular location ever as I wouldn't feel right wishing anyone else to be struck. The Euro looks to take it over Abaco (or very very close) and that's just cruel. I hope for a trend back west or better yet even further east OTS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#175 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:13 am

When I look at how this is evolving I can’t help but think of Tropical Storm Jerry from years ago...either 94 or 95 I think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#176 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:15 am

Image

ECMWF 96HRS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#177 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:16 am

0Z Euro a near stall at 96+ 125 miles east of Jax.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#178 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:20 am

Well this Euro run is sure to catch a few S2K’ers by surprise in the AM. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#179 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:26 am

Image

ECMWF 120HRS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#180 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:38 am

Well this is quite the surprising run.
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