ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#461 Postby StormTracker » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:26 pm

Every season we seem to go through the same thing! What seems logical to us (amateur meteorologist wanna-be's) based on what we learn from real meteorologists here (and some very intelligent students that are close to be/will become meteorologists one day) never seems to add up! The NHC is always right (+/- a few minor errors with a few storms)! Is it the FSU SuperEnsemble or what??? That's why they get payed the big bucks! Let's how this one goes...ST
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#462 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:51 pm



Looks like the HWRF "simulated" IR just took a snapshot of Dorian from when it was in that neck of the woods (with that big ragged eye and massive poleward outflow channel) and moved it east a few hundred miles.

Verbatim, the surf from that could take out a few NC beachfront homes weakened by Dorian.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#463 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:11 pm

18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#464 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:15 pm

LarryWx wrote:18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US


Sweeeet
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#465 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:18 pm

toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US


Sweeeet

Image

EDIT: These are the 12z ensembles.
Last edited by Kazmit on Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#466 Postby storm4u » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:20 pm

LarryWx wrote:18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US


All members still run off the old GFS though
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#467 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:15 pm

any update on the 18z Euro run?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#468 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:29 pm

CronkPSU wrote:any update on the 18z Euro run?


Almost identical to its earlier 12z run through 62 hrs.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#469 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:50 pm

18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#470 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:10 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#471 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:Image


Gator,

Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#472 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All
The navgem tried to hit sofla with irene, tried to hit us with td9 and going to try again.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#473 Postby CDO62 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:36 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:


Gator,

Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Click on the ens tab.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#474 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:32 pm

nhc dont think will loop will go out to sea
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#475 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:46 pm

00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#476 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...

Also at 72hrs seems to have a thumb ridge developing over it where previous runs didn’t so I want to see what this does after 3 days as it could still be like the previous run but wouldn’t be surprised to see a stall or loop back
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#477 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:59 pm

I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#478 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:01 pm

Kazmit wrote:I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.

Yep, that trough will take anything away from the US but Bermuda may have to watch this carefully
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#479 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:10 pm

Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#480 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:44 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast


Exactly. It stalling out would give enough time for the high above it to erode and the trough to pick it up northward. It was pretty close to new england and halifax on the 12z euro before turning northeast. It went from east to due north and then northeast. I'm really interested in seeing the 0z tonight.
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