ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#481 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:49 am

A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#482 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:02 am

NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.

https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif


The predictions of the many...outweigh...the predictions of the few. The ones coming back are pretty high pressures. Stronger ensembles take it farther from FL.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#483 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:05 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.

https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif


The predictions of the many...outweigh...the predictions of the few. The ones coming back are pretty high pressures. Stronger ensembles take it farther from FL.


Quote would work if we were talking about TS Kirk :)

But yea, a stronger system would feel the trough more and be lured OTS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#484 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:18 am

Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#485 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:46 pm

Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63


Bermuda hasn’t seen a storm like that in our lifetimes. That’s stronger than Fabian. A lot stronger
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#486 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:51 pm

I've thought for a day or two that this looked like a loop-type scenario...we'll see if more members start to follow the loop
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#487 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:57 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I've thought for a day or two that this looked like a loop-type scenario...we'll see if more members start to follow the loop

what talking about their no loop going be pull too ne soon what member you talking about you explain more
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#488 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:22 pm

Looks like the Euro shifted closer to Bermuda :eek:

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#489 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:35 pm

Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#490 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF

https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif


Good catch. I count 16 of the 51 (32%) that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#491 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF

https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif


Can you post a higher res. of that? I can hardly see it. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#492 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:47 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF

https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif


Good catch. I count 16 of the 51 (32%) that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.


The shift is the amount from that secondary camp that starts to lift ots are now stalling then turning west.
the florida camp has not changed much in a few runs..
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#493 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:48 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF

https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif


Can you post a higher res. of that? I can hardly see it. Thanks!


just updated weathernerds

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#494 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:52 pm

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#495 Postby canes92 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:53 pm

NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.

https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif


Interesting how one goes to Savannah GA and another goes to Charleston SC.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#496 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:20 pm

Yeah about 20% of the UKMET ensembles come back to Florida or the Carolinas.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#497 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:08 pm

Yep, almost half of Euro ensembles now show a not so fast OTS and or Bermuda solution, that's up from only around 1/3 of them showing it last night.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#498 Postby boca » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:17 pm

If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#499 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:23 pm

boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.


Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#500 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:38 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.


Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.

their no loop going happen it will go pass close too bermuda and out to sea look at cone you see talking about
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