ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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SapphireSea
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#521 Postby SapphireSea » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:28 pm

Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#522 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:30 pm

SapphireSea wrote:Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off


Definitely a lot of loops being made there
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#523 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:33 pm

SapphireSea wrote:Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

There is at least 20 members just on my phone hard to see. that stall or loop backthis all happens before the tracks from thennext system even enter the pictire.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#524 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

There is at least 20 members just on my phone hard to see. that stall or loop backthis all happens before the tracks from thennext system even enter the pictire.


Ya it's almost half that loop
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#525 Postby SapphireSea » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:36 pm

I had to really look hard, but a bunch of them seem to dissipate during the loop, and then either a feedback pops up or the member anticipates re-org as it moves wwa-rd. So yes there are quite a few loops. However all of them show weakening from here on in which is not reflective in the current trend. Had this been weakening by N to NNW shear and steering influence, then I think they may have weight. I think those members are overdoing the continental ridge.


Aric Dunn wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

There is at least 20 members just on my phone hard to see. that stall or loop backthis all happens before the tracks from thennext system even enter the pictire.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#526 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:39 pm

SapphireSea wrote:I had to really look hard, but a bunch of them seem to dissipate during the loop, and then either a feedback pops up or the member anticipates re-org as it moves wwa-rd. So yes there are quite a few loops. However all of them show weakening from here on in which is not reflective in the current trend. Had this been weakening by N to NNW shear and steering influence, then I think they may have weight. I think those members are overdoing the continental ridge.


Aric Dunn wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:Possible. I think a few of the members are echos of another system however. I only see 2 or 3 members doing any kind of loop. The rest if looked at very closely just form or appear meaning its feedback from another system. Interestingly all other formulative systems show the same thing even into long range. No steering N of 20N between 75W and 80W. Anything S of 20N is Easterlies - W Steering and anything East of 75W is Eastbound Westerlies. Very crazy "wall" for Florida seems to be in the forecast even into long ranges.


There is at least 20 members just on my phone hard to see. that stall or loop backthis all happens before the tracks from thennext system even enter the pictire.

The ones that loop back are pretty weak. As long as it strengthens (as it is currently doing) it's unlikely to do this.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#527 Postby Jr0d » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:50 pm

Instead of looping, maybe a piece of energy, the area South and east of Humberto gets left behind and that is what some of the ensembles are showing as a weak low looping back.

Right now I don't see much model support for a loop but I think the chances are extremely low of it happening.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#528 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:59 pm

0Z NAM looks like it wants to stall. Definitely west of 18z and slower
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#529 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:28 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#530 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:03 pm

Ouch. Cat 3 southern eyewall.

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#531 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:28 am

0Z CMC has a huge change vs the prior run, which had hit Bermuda head on. The new run stalls and then turns NW to just offshore N.C. OB!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#532 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:38 am

0Z CMC has a huge change vs the prior run, which had hit Bermuda head on. The new run stalls and turns toward N.C./VA!

Regarding the upcoming 0Z Euro, I doubt it will change too much vs the prior runs because I think the 0Z actual position (8PM EDT) was pretty close to what the prior runs had. If there is going to be significant change, I think it would be more likely to be at the 6Z because the real slowdown seemed to occur after 0Z from what I can tell.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#533 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:57 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z CMC has a huge change vs the prior run, which had hit Bermuda head on. The new run stalls and turns toward N.C./VA!

Regarding the upcoming 0Z Euro, I doubt it will change too much vs the prior runs because I think the 0Z actual position (8PM EDT) was pretty close to what the prior runs had. If there is going to be significant change, I think it would be more likely to be at the 6Z because the real slowdown seemed to occur after 0Z from what I can tell.


0Z Euro 24 suggests no big change vs prior runs. As I said above, I figure that if there is going to be a sig change, it will probably come with the 6Z.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#534 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:55 am

Historical East Coast large swell set up for a few runs on the Euro. Unfortunately Bermuda is not unscathed but no one does storms like they do.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1500&fh=96

This is Friday, still pumping! Significant surf impacts will last 10 days or more.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=120

I have surfed for 3 decades and have never seen a set up like this. WW3 is off the charts for duration and size.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 00&set=All
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#535 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:09 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z CMC has a huge change vs the prior run, which had hit Bermuda head on. The new run stalls and turns toward N.C./VA!

Regarding the upcoming 0Z Euro, I doubt it will change too much vs the prior runs because I think the 0Z actual position (8PM EDT) was pretty close to what the prior runs had. If there is going to be significant change, I think it would be more likely to be at the 6Z because the real slowdown seemed to occur after 0Z from what I can tell.


Crazy! Has it meandering off Hatteras and then following the weakness created by 96L. I doubt that is likely.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#536 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:28 am

Navgem brings a Cat 1 into Wilmington.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=240
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#537 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:22 am

Still a handful Euro ensembles looping back into Florida and the Carolinas though most of the models are OTS:

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#538 Postby plasticup » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:42 am

Kazmit wrote:Ouch. Cat 3 southern eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/wOolQfl.png


At least it is fast-moving. Just bought a new rope for my tank bucket though, so I'm all set.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#539 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:34 am

The 6Z Euro ensemble hath just spoken. It is far less threatening to the US than any of the last 3 runs. It has only 1 member with a N.C. hit and only about 2 members with weak TCs hitting FL. There’s only one other member at the end of the run with a weak TC 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral moving WNW. So, it has only about 4 of 51 (8%) members with a US hit or threat and only 1 strong TC.
Folks, the fat lady is stepping up to the mic as regards the US. The trend is your friend. I’m at only a 5% chance of a US hit now though I’m still going to watch his movement closely the rest of today and tonight to make sure the SE coast is safe.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:39 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#540 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:37 am

:uarrow: Yep, good to see there is very little if any US threats with Humberto with the Euro's ensembles now trending with a OTS after possibly impacting Bermuda. I am always shocked of how often Bermuda gets hits with being such a small Island.
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