ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#541 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:01 pm

12Z Euro 48 is only slightly W of the 3 previous runs. Should still be an easy miss for the US.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#542 Postby aperson » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:14 pm

12Z Euro locking onto the same intense deepening that UKMET sees?

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#543 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:26 pm

Interesting north movement at hour 120 after raking Bermuda with its right side. A little like the 12Z CMC. Will still miss the US easily.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#544 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:45 pm

And now mainly for entertainment: the 12Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) ensembles just like the 0Z run hits the CONUS (FL-NC) with ~10 of the ~21 members. But note that this is quite the inferior ensemble to the GEFS and especially to the EPS. So, there's no reason to buy into its suggestion of "not so fast" with regard to the US. It is doing so because it has an unrealistically stronger ridge to the north vs the GEFS and EPS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#545 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:17 pm

Here we go again. The 12Z Euro ens is back to having more members than the 6Z, which had only 4, threaten or hit the US after stalling. It is going to have quite a few more hits from what I can already tell. More details from me or whomever as the run goes further.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#546 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:38 pm

LarryWx wrote:Here we go again. The 12Z Euro ens is back to having more members than the 6Z, which had only 4, threaten or hit the US after stalling. It is going to have quite a few more hits from what I can already tell. More details from me or whomever as the run goes further.


The 12Z Euro ens has ~13 US hits including one skim (~25%) which is almost double the 7 of the 0Z ens and more than triple the 4 of the 6Z. The highest of any Euro ens run so far has been the 12Z of yesterday's ~16 members. So, this 13 isn't far from that.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#547 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:22 pm

When you look at the 12Z Euro ens, GEFS, and the inferior GEPS, you can plainly see that any member that doesn't reach 70W and especially ones that don't reach 72W by late Wed. is at risk of coming all the way back to the US due to an uncommonly strong and upper ridge over the E US that all models have persistering through Saturday. It is still a low probability since no major operational does it but not one to ignore just yet, especially with what the 12Z Euro ens just showed (25% of members coming all the way back).
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#548 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:37 pm

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#549 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:41 pm

I know it isn't a good model at all, but just to illustrate the above, the 0Z/12Z NAVGEM don't get to 72W by Wed evening and they then both come back to threaten NC. In contrast, the 6Z gets almost to 70W and doesn't come back.

Edit: The 12Z Euro just gets to 70W and even it later takes an abrupt turn to the north. All of the recent GFS and ICONS move past 70W by late Wed and none of them come back at all.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#550 Postby hohnywx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:28 pm

LarryWx, thanks for your posts. I appreciate the insight since there is no other model discussion occurring.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#551 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:09 pm

The 18Z GFS is a little slower and left of the 12Z run as it passes Bermuda, but still passes close.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#552 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:55 pm

Reason why I said what I said a few days ago. OTS is still looking likely but another outcome isn't completely ruled out yet due to higher than normal uncertainty.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1173368045709873152


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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#553 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:52 pm

Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#554 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.


we can throw the 18z guidence out with the new recon fixes and motion well south of the consensus. 00z IFFFFFF initialized correctly. will likely see more ensembles shifts to loops.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#555 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:01 pm

18z euro ensembles are interesting. looks like a bunch are initialized north ( hARD TO TELL)and some south at current position. quite a few US landfall threats. 00z should be even more interesting.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#556 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:04 pm

The stronger this is the more threat to Bermuda, some of the ensembles that have it turning left later or looping are the weaker ones, it looks like the NHC forecast is going to be more or less right, I bet the track shifts a little closer to Bermuda at 11pm. It could be really close for them.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1173404162635247617


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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#557 Postby StruThiO » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:03 pm

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#558 Postby StruThiO » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:05 pm

:roflmao:

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#559 Postby aperson » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:06 pm

gfs t=120 trend:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#560 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z euro ensembles are interesting. looks like a bunch are initialized north ( hARD TO TELL)and some south at current position. quite a few US landfall threats. 00z should be even more interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/LhGbg7Q/dfbsgd.png


Yeah, I was wrong with my prediction of fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z. It actually had the same # of hits, 13 (25%).
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