ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#561 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:04 am

The trend is slightly concerning for Atlantic Canada as it seems to be getting closer run by run so they and maybe even eastern New England may have to watch this still and wouldn’t be surprised if some ensembles show that
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#562 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:07 am



That's a decent west shift in the past 24 hours. Each run it comes closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#563 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:15 am

Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z rum is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#564 Postby aperson » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:44 am

00z Euro ensembles

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#565 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:42 am



Good news for the US, the 0Z Euro ensemble has far fewer hits (3) vs the prior two runs’ 13.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#566 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:29 am

yeah good news on the 00z.at least for now.. its still teetering. not till this is past bermuda
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#567 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:10 am

LarryWx wrote:


Good news for the US, the 0Z Euro ensemble has far fewer hits (3) vs the prior two runs’ 13.


The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE).
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#568 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:09 pm

12z Euro is much faster, and as a result, has a much later turn to the NW. Which means it pretty much goes right over Bermuda. :roll:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#569 Postby Siker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:32 pm

A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#570 Postby DioBrando » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:41 pm

Siker wrote:A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.

How is that even possible lol
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#571 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:05 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Siker wrote:A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.

How is that even possible lol

The subtropical ridge takes it around, a very uncommon thing
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#572 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:33 pm

18z GFS further right; puts Bermuda in the hurricane-force wind-field.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#573 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:18 am

00z CMC shows BDA landfall

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#574 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:19 am

06z GFS keeps him to the north. Looks like there is more agreement on this solution now:

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