ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#81 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:19 pm

12Z Euro right up the FL peninsula through 120. No Gulf this run. Right trend continues.

Is the ICON going to end up scoring a win? Keep in mind that it was very stubborn for several days in having the main low just E of FL rather than moving into the Gulf like most other models. All of those runs are still at Tropical Tidbits. Now the consensus is heading in the ICON's direction.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:29 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#82 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:21 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro right up the FL peninsula. No Gulf. Right trend.


it's splitting vorticities models going to have a hard time with this but looks to be just a good rain maker, Icon, Euro, Ukmet all show this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#83 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:24 pm

EURO is missing something there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#84 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:35 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro right up the FL peninsula. No Gulf. Right trend.


it's splitting vorticities models going to have a hard time with this but looks to be just a good rain maker, Icon, Euro, Ukmet all show this.


No its not - 12z Euro takes the low from Miami to Tampa to Tallahassee and inland into S Alabama. Its roughly at the same landfall as the earlier 00z run. it's not gonna ride up the FL east coast - at least according to the Euro with a huge thumb ridge north of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#85 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:36 pm

ronjon wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro right up the FL peninsula. No Gulf. Right trend.


it's splitting vorticities models going to have a hard time with this but looks to be just a good rain maker, Icon, Euro, Ukmet all show this.


No its not - 12z Euro takes the low from Miami to Tampa to Tallahassee and inland into S Alabama. Its roughly at the same landfall as the earlier 00z run. it's not gonna ride up the FL east coast - at least according to the Euro with a huge thumb ridge north of it.



let me rephrase that it's splitting moisture just like icon, euro, and ukmet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#86 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:37 pm

Euro pushes far west into Alabama/Mississippi with building ridge overhead
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#87 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:40 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Euro pushes far west into Alabama/Mississippi with building ridge overhead



Actually, the system gets trapped and stalls out under the building ridge in South Alabama at the end of the medium range period.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#88 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:45 pm

Euro shows no stall...it continues to push far west into Alabama/Mississippi then lifting north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#89 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:46 pm

12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#90 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:53 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Euro shows no stall...it continues to push far west into Alabama/Mississippi then lifting north


OK. I did not continue the full loop a short time ago. I do see now what you indicated Ivanhater. Thanks!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#91 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:54 pm

12z models finally updated...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#92 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:59 pm

BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif



How does it intesify over land like that. Model speed seems off until its moving that fast and can maintain itself.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#93 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:01 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Euro shows no stall...it continues to push far west into Alabama/Mississippi then lifting north


OK. I did not continue the full loop a short time ago. I do see now what you indicated Ivanhater. Thanks!


No worries Jax, good to see you btw!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#94 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#95 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:08 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Euro shows no stall...it continues to push far west into Alabama/Mississippi then lifting north


OK. I did not continue the full loop a short time ago. I do see now what you indicated Ivanhater. Thanks!


No worries Jax, good to see you btw!



Yeah, great to see and hear from you too Ivan. 95L may be throwing us some surprises today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#96 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:18 pm

12Z Euro ens: it also has trended east since 0Z run. Many members go up FL peninsula. Some in Gulf but also a couple E of FL, too. Many then go into GA, AL, or SC. I saw at least one stay offshore in the Atlantic.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#97 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:20 pm

they are having trouble with the upper level pattern, ridge looks stout, so should have an idea friday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#98 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:37 pm

Detailed 12z Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#99 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:41 pm

BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif


That run verifying would be bad. The central Panhandle is still a large campground for many people with tons of debris. Particularly tree debris. A moderate tropical storm could devastate this area again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#100 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:46 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: That EURO run in detail shows that 95L could give much of the Florida peninusula quite a nice little punch. Heavy rainfall potential for much of the peninsula possible if this verifies.
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