ATL: ex-INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Will it be 96L or 98L?

It would be reclassified as 96L.

Not always, there's been plenty of times where former invests are just re-titled as a separate invest.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Will it be 96L or 98L?

It would be reclassified as 96L.

Not always, there's been plenty of times where former invests are just re-titled as a separate invest.

Well in that case it would be tagged as gulp 99L.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk to the CONUS is, ironically, if this stays weak in the MDR.

Bump. So, it has stayed weak in the MDR after all, and low and behold it has stayed south and therefore may end up a CONUS risk after all IF it actually ever becomes a TC. Working against fast development per the Euro would be moderate S to SW shear that looks to persist. Projected movement is very slow in the N Caribbean. Working against it would be significant land interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba thereafter. I think a lot will depend on what Jerry does. If Jerry ends up weak and doesn’t go into the Caribbean , then I’d think there’d be more of a chance for energy to concentrate enough for this to possibly develop into a TC.

[GCANE]

A Potential Vorticity Streamer (PVS) is ahead of this due to Humberto interacting with a stratospheric Rossby Wave.
Looks like its on the butt end of the PVS.
Convection is firing along a weak shear axis and shear is dropping.
Looks like a good part of the convection is holding closer to the wave axis.
Need to watch this closely if the convection can take out the PVS and allow a stacked vort column to develop.
Doesn't look like it would take much to get this going.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS develops the ex-96L tonight at 1008 mb south of Hispaniola.

It really looks good currently on satellite imagery. Definitely.organizing.

[galaxy401]

I think this is ex-96L. Finally got a mention.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[chaser1]

I'm frankly surprised that it's not only maintained it's over all convection but it appears to have even increased and become more concentrated. Southerly surface inflow looks to have further sharpened as already mentioned, the upper level shear does not seem insurmountable either. This may be still being discussed in the original 96L forum but that's probably been lost on most people because NHC has not been discussing it lately until just today's 2:00pm TWO. This would be a bit of an oddity this year if it were to continue to track slowly westward (within the Caribbean) and maintain or slowly increase in organization but I think that NHC is calling for NW motion and that could cause "the rock" or E. Cuba to disrupt development. I think it's worth keeping an eye on and would guess that any slight additional evidence of a weak low to mid level circulation on it's southwest side would be cause for NHC to raise near term odds of development to 30% or more.

[GCANE]

PVS clearly seen on satellite imagery.
Dryline convection firing on the SE end of the axis.
This could slowly erode the PVS.
If this erodes, there could be a potential for rapid TC development.

[NDG]

I still see a broad surface circulation here but circulation is strongest at the mid levels, surface pressures continue to drop now down 1007 mb, 2-3 mb lower than 24 hours ago.

[boca]

Looks like it’s going to run into Hispañola and probably end up dying there too.

[northjaxpro]

I still see a broad surface circulation here but circulation is strongest at the mid levels, surface pressures continue to drop now down 1007 mb, 2-3 mb lower than 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/rjI63Rg.gif

It is already stronger than what 12Z GFS run has it being modeled at 1008 mb early tomorrow at 06Z

[boca]

Ex 96 being in the graveyard between South America and Hispañola choke off the ability for this system to organize?

[AJC3]

Gang,

In order to avoid another thread being started on this area, the two ex-96L threads (Discussion and Models) have been moved back into the Talkin' Tropics forum. However, we've left shadow topics in place so that both threads can be accessed from ether forum. If you click on one of the "shadow" topics in the Active Storms forum, it will simply redirect you to the actual thread in TT, where you can post comments.

[AJC3]

Gang,

In order to avoid another thread being started on this area, the two ex-96L threads (Discussion and Models) have been moved back into the Talkin' Tropics forum. However, we've left shadow topics in place so that both threads can be accessed from ether forum. If you click on one of the "shadow" topics in the Active Storms forum, it will simply redirect you to the actual thread in TT, where you can post comments.

[GCANE]

As Humberto goes extra-tropical and gets absorbed by the Rossby wave, the PV Streamer that came off Humberto has significantly weakened this afternoon.
Looks like it left a small UL HIgh in its wake.
If a low-vort with associated convection tracks into that, it could mean rapid development.

[watsx2]

I'm still watching this one close.....along with Jerry.....can anyone tell me what the invest # is for the wave BEHIND Jerry tonight?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[AJC3]

I'm still watching this one close.....along with Jerry.....can anyone tell me what the invest # is for the wave BEHIND Jerry tonight?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

It has not been assigned an Invest number yet. It is, however, being discussed here...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120584

[northjaxpro]

Ex 96L continues to look good on satellite imagery this morning. It has not moved much , if at all in the past 24 hours. The Low Pressure area is forecast to drift northwest the next several days. The HUGE question is if ex 96L can survive Hispaniola?

If ex-96L can navigate around the shredder, we may have this around to deal with next week. Hispaniola likely will bury ex 96L once it traverses over it, but stranger things have happened in the past.

It is trying to wrap up more compactly this morning. Convection definitely more concentrated around the LLC.

[tropicwatch]

8AM

An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located just south of the Dominican Republic. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development,
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since yesterday.
Some slight development is still possible before the system begins
to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next day or two. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[tailgater]

I’m focusing on the whole central Caribbean, this area has numerous weak low level vortices and trade winds are really low for this area. It’s like a large tropical gyre may be forming here.
Just a another area to watch over the next several days as even it does start developing I think it would take a while to pull this large mass together but as GCAne stated earlier he thinks it could pop rather quickly and he’s way more in tune to this pattern than I.