ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#461 Postby Jr0d » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:43 am

The LLC is becoming exposed again. Jerry continues to weaken.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#462 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:21 am

Jerry isn’t looking well at all. If it dissipates then would the system itself still follow Humberto’s footprints or could it possibly travel as far as the gulf and then possibly regenerate again? This year has seemed to be that kind of year.


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#463 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:26 am

Fishing wrote:Jerry isn’t looking well at all. If it dissipates then would the system itself still follow Humberto’s footprints or could it possibly travel as far as the gulf and then possibly regenerate again? This year has seemed to be that kind of year.


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It wouldn’t get into the gulf. Would likely follow the same path.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#464 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:23 am

At this point Jerry has totally decoupled. May dissipate.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#465 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:50 pm

xironman wrote:At this point Jerry has totally decoupled. May dissipate.


It's possible Jerry could dissipate, but probably not. GFS & Euro had been predicting weakening yesterday and today. They're also predicting re-strengthening prior to passing near Bermuda on Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#466 Postby Buck » Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:52 pm

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21
Location: 23.0°N 65.8°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#467 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:09 pm

Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#468 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.


The discussion does mention an ASCAT pass as the primary reason they stick with this intensity. So I guess they do have the data.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#469 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:55 pm

Most recent ASCAT pass appears to be a MetOp-A pass from 1502Z, which did show near 50 kt maximum wind speeds at that time. Considering work by Chou, Wu, and Lin does show that ASCAT has a low bias at that intensity, 55 kt seemed reasonable for 18Z, which I suppose NHC maintained for their advisory for 21Z. However, that ASCAT pass is now over 9 hours old, and the center of Jerry remains exposed. The circulation still looks vigorous, but I'd still drop the intensity down to 45 kt for 00Z. It'll be interesting to see what NHC does since their 00Z estimate should be out any minute now.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#470 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:57 pm

Wow, NHC maintained 55 kt for 00Z too.

AL, 10, 2019092200, , BEST, 0, 237N, 660W, 55, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 60, 1012, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 10, 2019092200, , BEST, 0, 237N, 660W, 55, 1002, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#471 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:05 pm

Jerry had a rough day. But it sounds like he's hanging in there for now?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#472 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:50 pm

plasticup wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.


The discussion does mention an ASCAT pass as the primary reason they stick with this intensity. So I guess they do have the data.


That ASCAT pass was 12 hrs ago.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#473 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:59 am

Recon confirmed Jerry's 55kt and found the pressure substantially down to 997mb as well.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#474 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:58 pm

Not surprised since there's convection near the center again.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#475 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 22, 2019 2:04 pm

Jerry is certainly no quitter.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#476 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:59 pm

...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22
Location: 26.7°N 66.9°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#477 Postby plasticup » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:05 pm

Track is a little closer to Bermuda again
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#478 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:20 pm

Quite a change compared to a couple days ago. Initially they said Jerry would restrengthen as the shear lessens but now it looks like the shear will be here to stay.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#479 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:58 pm

Does shear ever do what it's supposed to? :roll:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#480 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:57 pm

Hey Jerry why are you moving WNW? 297° bearing per recon
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