ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#441 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:52 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Jerry reminds me of Gonzalo 2014.

Yikes, very true. 2nd storm in a row to threaten Bermuda and a similar track too. Hopefully it won’t get as intense.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#442 Postby rbaker55 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:53 pm

compared to 6 hours ago what a marked difference in organization. Still further upstream looks like some serious shear ahead unless it retrogrades west
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#443 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:12 pm

Looks like Jerry is not going to bother the northern leewards much at all.
The islands are shut down, anticipating heavy rains and flooding.
But we have had no rain, just a brief shower mid day.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#444 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:14 pm

msbee wrote:Looks like Jerry is not going to bother the northern leewards much at all.
The islands are shut down, anticipating heavy rains and flooding.
But we have had no rain, just a brief shower mid day.


That is great news Barbara.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#445 Postby stormwatcher95 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:if that is a pinhole eye poping out on IR then we are seeing some serious RI...

Definitely looks like a pinhole for a few frames. Definitely appears to be pulling together and bombing out
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#446 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:20 pm

South of west ?

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#447 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:21 pm

Recent microwave pass over Jerry showed evidence of a mid level eye again.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#448 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:Looks like Jerry is not going to bother the northern leewards much at all.
The islands are shut down, anticipating heavy rains and flooding.
But we have had no rain, just a brief shower mid day.


That is great news Barbara.

Glad it is passing PR too
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#449 Postby StAuggy » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:41 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

It’s interesting to watch this last burst of convection on the water vapor loop... looks like a bomb went off
Last edited by StAuggy on Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#450 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:42 pm

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#451 Postby Visioen » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:44 pm

Last time I checked Jerry was right before the beginning of this loop, being in shambles. :eek:

These small ones sure take you on an observational rollercoaster sometimes.

Image

Edit: loop doesn't seem to be working
Last edited by Visioen on Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#452 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:48 pm

Looks like a giant bowling ball.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#453 Postby Visioen » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:55 pm

So which model predicted this? :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#454 Postby Visioen » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:05 pm

Last NHC discussion stated it would be weakening:
Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or so, and further weakening is expected.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#455 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:19 pm

msbee wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:Looks like Jerry is not going to bother the northern leewards much at all.
The islands are shut down, anticipating heavy rains and flooding.
But we have had no rain, just a brief shower mid day.


That is great news Barbara.

Glad it is passing PR too


Thats the important thing Jerry decided to go OTS, only a threat to marine interests and maybe Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#456 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:40 pm

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#457 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:51 pm

Good news...recon switched planes and took off for a third time. Should arrive at the center in about an hour.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#458 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:58 pm

well soo much for shear being a problem in the short term..

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#459 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:57 pm

Seems like a tropical storm from the last recon pass--probably take a few hours to recover from the shear if it's indeed letting up.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#460 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:13 am

Very interesting part of the latest discussion:
By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.
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Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

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