ATL: JERRY - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 1000mb for 18z sheesh

Pretty normal for the Euro, don’t think this will affect track...

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 1000mb for 18z sheesh

Pretty normal for the Euro, don’t think this will affect track...

it was doing just fine with Dorian ... one would think at some point nearly 30 mb .. shallow vs deep system it would matter..

[storm4u]

Euro 1000mb for 18z sheesh

Does it end up close to 12z?

[MetroMike]

Major track changes westward would liven this thread up but I'm thinking this is now locked in as missing conus or the islands. The models do an excellent job when a recurve is in the offing.

[LarryWx]

18Z EPS 144 (end of run): still has a small minority in a potentially dangerous position for CONUS though not as small as 12Z 150 or 0Z 162 fwiw.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z EPS 144 (end of run): still has a small minority in a potentially dangerous position for CONUS though not as small as 12Z 150 or 0Z 162 fwiw.

500mb 18z

has no exit..

[Aric Dunn]

18z operationional is def a sw shift.

[gatorcane]

18Z EPS 144 (end of run): still has a small minority in a potentially dangerous position for CONUS though not as small as 12Z 150 or 0Z 162 fwiw.

500mb 18z

has no exit..


https://i.ibb.co/qrR9ddh/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091918-75-15844-448.png

Wouldn’t it just turn north at this position with that steering flow?

[Aric Dunn]

18Z EPS 144 (end of run): still has a small minority in a potentially dangerous position for CONUS though not as small as 12Z 150 or 0Z 162 fwiw.

500mb 18z

has no exit..


https://i.ibb.co/qrR9ddh/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091918-75-15844-448.png

Wouldn’t it just turn north at this position with that steering flow?

yes. but unless something moves north of it .. it would stop..

[floridasun78]

500mb 18z

has no exit..


https://i.ibb.co/qrR9ddh/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091918-75-15844-448.png

Wouldn’t it just turn north at this position with that steering flow?

yes. but unless something moves north of it .. it would stop..

what north jerry?

[Aric Dunn]

18z eps.. bunch of stall/meanders

still needs to be watched for sure.

[CreponChris]

Sharing a couple GEFS-related images before bed :] This is the AEMN track over the last four 00 Zulu runs. It's the mean (as in mean, median and mode) track isolated. Also that exact track plotted as a VMAX (wind speed or intensity prediction for the same number of previous 00 Z runs)









Lastly, this admittedly isn't the best shot ever but it's a look at the 12Z from today (19th) Combined EPS, A-Deck Multi Model, GEFS, UKMO, FNMOC, SHEILD GFV8 (dodgerblue), GF94 (green) HNVI (olive) FV3-GSDsuite (orangered), FV3-GSD GFS (dark red) FIM8 (steelblue), A-Deck Late, A-deck Early, and anyway point I'm showing here is most outliers which appear to be a thread to the CONUS are HMON and FNMOC. G'night. Thanks for all the informative posts/discussion as usual.

[ConvergenceZone]

There’s no way this will hit the US mainland. Definite recurve for sure

[aperson]

[LarryWx]

Even though it remains a small minority, the EPS won't stop hitting FL with TCs. On the 0Z EPS, I count ~5 FL plus one other one that hits TX. So, ~6 CONUS hits or ~12%.

[aperson]

[AutoPenalti]

Now they are weaker than stronger...

[SconnieCane]

A fair number of members hitting some part of Atlantic Canada with Jerry or its post-tropical incarnation. Dorian may not be the last they see of cyclones of tropical origin this year.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z EPS is still another run with a small minority of members in a Conus threatening position at the end. It still won’t completely back down.

[tolakram]

There’s no way this will hit the US mainland. Definite recurve for sure

Why be so definitive? How about, if the upper air pattern the models are showing is correct this should curve away from the US mainland. Nothing is set in stone though, if models can be wrong about a storm hitting Florida they can also be wrong about showing a recurve.