Location: 10.4°N 106.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
EPAC: MARIO - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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EPAC: MARIO - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days. After mid
week, this system is forecast to interact or merge with the
disturbance to its east, and further development could be limited.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
association with an area of low pressure centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days. After mid
week, this system is forecast to interact or merge with the
disturbance to its east, and further development could be limited.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Shear values probably suspect given the path versus GFS.
* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912019 09/16/19 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 33 35 36 37 39 39 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 20 23 25 22 24 25 17 17 25 30 26 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 58 56 62 67 55 49 38 52 37 57 69 82 70
SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 145 150 154 155 154 152 151 152
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 87 85 85 81 79 75 71 70 71 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 10 9 8 9 0 -12 -4 5 39 48 53
200 MB DIV 78 91 108 101 108 99 103 121 105 98 111 125 115
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -8 -10 -4 -3 -2 0 7 -2
LAND (KM) 1033 1059 1097 1138 1167 1191 1132 1024 949 868 785 731 680
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.6 10.0 11.2 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.5
LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.4 110.4 111.3 111.7 111.8 111.5 111.1 110.7 110.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 4 4 2 5
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 14 16 20 24 26 24 20 16 15 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 12. 19. 27. 30. 32. 31. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 107.5
** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912019 09/16/19 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 33 35 36 37 39 39 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 20 23 25 22 24 25 17 17 25 30 26 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 58 56 62 67 55 49 38 52 37 57 69 82 70
SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 145 150 154 155 154 152 151 152
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 87 85 85 81 79 75 71 70 71 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 10 9 8 9 0 -12 -4 5 39 48 53
200 MB DIV 78 91 108 101 108 99 103 121 105 98 111 125 115
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -8 -10 -4 -3 -2 0 7 -2
LAND (KM) 1033 1059 1097 1138 1167 1191 1132 1024 949 868 785 731 680
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.6 10.0 11.2 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.5
LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.4 110.4 111.3 111.7 111.8 111.5 111.1 110.7 110.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 4 4 2 5
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 14 16 20 24 26 24 20 16 15 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 12. 19. 27. 30. 32. 31. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 107.5
** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
A small area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better
organized. Any significant increase in organized thunderstorm
activity will likely result in the formation of a tropical
depression tonight or tomorrow. Beyond mid week, strong upper-level
winds from the system to the east could inhibit further development
while the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better
organized. Any significant increase in organized thunderstorm
activity will likely result in the formation of a tropical
depression tonight or tomorrow. Beyond mid week, strong upper-level
winds from the system to the east could inhibit further development
while the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Astromanía
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
This is also developing fast, sad its to near to the invest at the east
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Satellite data indicate that a small low pressure area located
about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to
become better defined, however, the associated showers and
thunderstorms still lack organization. Any significant increase
in the organization of the thunderstorm activity would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Tuesday
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to
become better defined, however, the associated showers and
thunderstorms still lack organization. Any significant increase
in the organization of the thunderstorm activity would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Tuesday
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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zeehag
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
while i was perusing the sites to see how these are coming along, i visited passage weather which showed these dancing together... we could be in for some interesting developmental information.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is close to becoming a
tropical depression. Advisories on this system could be initiated
later this morning or this afternoon while the low moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
well-defined area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is close to becoming a
tropical depression. Advisories on this system could be initiated
later this morning or this afternoon while the low moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
EP, 14, 2019091712, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1080W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, TRANSITIONED, epD12019 to ep142019,
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure
that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB
estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm
activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the
initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer
data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.
The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided
by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the
next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid-
latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest
complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some
of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary
interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward
motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer
to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward
HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend
of those models.
While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this
depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is
problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow
from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently
forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the
cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another,
this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in
most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the
corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure
that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB
estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm
activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the
initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer
data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.
The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided
by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the
next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid-
latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest
complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some
of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary
interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward
motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer
to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward
HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend
of those models.
While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this
depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is
problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow
from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently
forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the
cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another,
this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in
most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the
corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Astromanía
- Category 2
- Posts: 737
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN - E - Tropical Depression
Interesting how the future of this is uncertain
0 likes
-
galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2299
- Age: 28
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm
Mario has joined in the growing club of storms.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 108.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 108.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
1 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15952
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN - E - Tropical Depression
Honestly this isn't anything special. Surprised to see an upgrade.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.
Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.
With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.
Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.
With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Astromanía
- Category 2
- Posts: 737
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
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EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm
Now all we have to do is get Lorenzo retired and replaced in the Atlantic with Luigi and in 2025 we can have a Nintendo party in the Western Hemisphere basins
5 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
-
Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2899
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm
EquusStorm wrote:Now all we have to do is get Lorenzo retired and replaced in the Atlantic with Luigi and in 2025 we can have a Nintendo party in the Western Hemisphere basins
Imagine the headlines if we get both of them both at once
3 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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