EPAC: LORENA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2019, DB, O, 2019091018, 9999999999, , 031, , , 8, METWATCH, , EP922019

SPAWNINVEST, ep732019 to ep922019,
EP, 92, 2019091606, , BEST, 0, 110N, 950W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,

[cycloneye]

2. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined overnight, and
the associated thunderstorm activity has also increased.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near,
or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922019 09/16/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 39 42 47 50 52 55 57 59 60
V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 39 42 47 50 52 55 57 59 60
V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 37 38 39 39 40 41 42 41 41 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 22 24 22 21 25 29 28 24 24 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 7 7 5 4 12 4 7 9 11 13
SHEAR DIR 49 46 48 47 57 53 33 42 37 41 36 14 7
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5
POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 161 165 165 164 164 164 163 162 165 168 171
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 86 83 81 77 77 74 75 69 69 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 6 6 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 1 7 13 16 -11 -2 -18 -14 2 17 29
200 MB DIV 75 106 118 107 87 98 57 94 49 77 89 96 81
700-850 TADV -2 -6 -7 -8 -5 -6 -11 -15 -5 -1 -4 -9 -14
LAND (KM) 529 536 533 534 528 465 404 336 302 292 256 178 108
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.7 16.5 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 100.8 101.9 102.8 103.2 103.1 102.8 102.9 103.4 104.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 2 1 3 7 11
HEAT CONTENT 17 23 35 44 50 49 38 33 32 32 32 32 37

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.4% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.7% 16.6% 5.2% 2.5% 0.4% 4.5% 8.0% 16.2%
Bayesian: 4.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 6.7% 15.1% 8.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 2.7% 5.4%
DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Thunderstorm activity associated with a larger low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is also becoming better organized, with
satellite-derived winds indicating that the circulation is also
better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward near or a short distance offshore of the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Astromanía]

Developing fast I see

[Yellow Evan]

A larger area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Although the circulation of this system
is not yet well defined, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for the development of a tropical depression within the
next day or so. This disturbance is expected to move to the
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the large area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized. If this development
trend continues, then a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form later today or tonight. This system will continue to move
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for the
next few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

17/0600 UTC 12.7N 98.3W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

[Nancy Smar]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Sep 2019 14:14 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Lorena, located about 200 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, at 8 AM

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
250 miles south of Acapulco is becoming better defined and is close
to becoming a tropical storm. Advisories will likely be initiated
later this morning, and this system will continue to move west-
northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico during
the next few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings
could be required later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 15, 2019091712, , BEST, 0, 133N, 996W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LORENA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, TRANSITIONED, epC22019 to ep152019,

[ElectricStorm]

EP, 15, 2019091712, , BEST, 0, 133N, 996W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LORENA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, TRANSITIONED, epC22019 to ep152019,

15? Interesting. Maybe 91E will be 14?

[ElectricStorm]

EP, 15, 2019091712, , BEST, 0, 133N, 996W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LORENA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, TRANSITIONED, epC22019 to ep152019,

15? Interesting. Maybe 91E will be 14?
ok yes it is

[Astromanía]

This will be problematic to Mexico, is not expect to make landfall but will come very close that could bring tons of rainfall

[Yellow Evan]

17/1800 UTC 14.0N 100.4W T1.5/1.5 LORENA -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172041
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier
this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for
this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat
during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still
notably lower than the ASCAT winds.

The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has
been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since
the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the
guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the
official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally
northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very
near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early
Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it
should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja
California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is
highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the
high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to
TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track
forecast has increased.

The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable
for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches
the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its
track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and
could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore,
it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it
moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the
HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena
weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the
intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone
farther from the coast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[1900hurricane]

Somewhat Impressively, this has been able to manage to fire off -80ºC tops during the day.

[Astromanía]

Now this is the one with uncertain future

[zeehag]

those of us here for mario and lorena are being advised by mets in mx that there is a possibility of fujiwhara effect.
we are watching.
i am hoping the two are nonevents.
i prefer to be farther away from anything smelling of excitement.

[Astromanía]

I'm really impressed about those cold top clouds! Does anyone know if this is developing a core under all that convection?, very close to land, I don´t know if this will survive being just close to the coast, if it will interact with Mario after all, or if will make landfall and die.