ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Is there a thread for what might happen next week?

[jasons2k]

I just did a quick model check and I don’t see anything major left. I’m feeling much better about things drying out now. Always a chance some storms fire tomorrow but nothing major.

A cousin sent this over:

Per The Weather Channel, Imelda is the #5 wettest system to hit the contiguous United States. Harvey is still #1

[Audreyadele]

Low-level WV imagery showing convection firing on a very sharp dry line.
Mid-level moist air over riding very dry boundary-layer air. This creates a very intense updraft or lapse-rate.
The kicker is that is under a UL High and its advecting in massive amounts of nearly max moist GOM air.
A nearly "perfect" storm setup.


https://i.imgur.com/bPrH0wM.png

https://i.imgur.com/71oeK8m.png

I sent this to Mom this morning at 445am. I went to bed at 145am and couldn’t sleep. My grandmother (by marriage) lives in Beaumont. My Mom lives in Galveston. I read what you and Steve were posting last night and was worried.
I am glad I was... I finally got a hold of them (my mom and her partner) at 530am and they immediately called her nurse and neighbor. She did not flood, but she is a stubborn 92yr old.
I asked my husband tonight if he thought the news in HOUSTON made us aware. He was adamant to say that Frank Billingsly last night said we needed to be on our toes. I didn’t feel that way, but I’m guessing it is because I read your posts and they are way more direct.
I read earlier some of you were upset that people don’t pay attention and heed the warnings.
As far as Houston metro, the warnings for something like this were not being addressed. I started to think something was up after switching back and forth all morning trying to figure out my family’s situation. 3 networks were broadcasting and only 2 were keeping it on Imeld after 7am. I checked spacecity.org and he/they weren’t answering the commute questions either. So, I get why people took their trash out today. I was shocked to see my mailman. My HEB is a 5 min drive and I waited until 6pm to go. The cars that were stalled out on West Alabama and dunlavy pulling into or out of that HEB is ridiculous.
I lurk here daily during the hurricane season. I do that because i learned a long time ago that I trust listening to every single one of you.
Thank you for taking the time post, answering the questions (that I’m always too embarrassed to ask) and putting up with people like me.
You all bring some clarity and some sense of relief to the unknown with your discussions and model analysis.

[GCANE]

Low-level WV imagery showing convection firing on a very sharp dry line.
Mid-level moist air over riding very dry boundary-layer air. This creates a very intense updraft or lapse-rate.
The kicker is that is under a UL High and its advecting in massive amounts of nearly max moist GOM air.
A nearly "perfect" storm setup.


https://i.imgur.com/bPrH0wM.png

https://i.imgur.com/71oeK8m.png

I sent this to Mom this morning at 445am. I went to bed at 145am and couldn’t sleep. My grandmother (by marriage) lives in Beaumont. My Mom lives in Galveston. I read what you and Steve were posting last night and was worried.
I am glad I was... I finally got a hold of them (my mom and her partner) at 530am and they immediately called her nurse and neighbor. She did not flood, but she is a stubborn 92yr old.
I asked my husband tonight if he thought the news in HOUSTON made us aware. He was adamant to say that Frank Billingsly last night said we needed to be on our toes. I didn’t feel that way, but I’m guessing it is because I read your posts and they are way more direct.
I read earlier some of you were upset that people don’t pay attention and heed the warnings.
As far as Houston metro, the warnings for something like this were not being addressed. I started to think something was up after switching back and forth all morning trying to figure out my family’s situation. 3 networks were broadcasting and only 2 were keeping it on Imeld after 7am. I checked spacecity.org and he/they weren’t answering the commute questions either. So, I get why people took their trash out today. I was shocked to see my mailman. My HEB is a 5 min drive and I waited until 6pm to go. The cars that were stalled out on West Alabama and dunlavy pulling into or out of that HEB is ridiculous.
I lurk here daily during the hurricane season. I do that because i learned a long time ago that I trust listening to every single one of you.
Thank you for taking the time post, answering the questions (that I’m always too embarrassed to ask) and putting up with people like me.
You all bring some clarity and some sense of relief to the unknown with your discussions and model analysis.

Much thanks, I hope everything turned out OK for you and your family.

[GCANE]

Good product to keep track of flooding:

http://flash.ou.edu/new/

https://blog.nssl.noaa.gov/flash/

[Stephanie]

They have been showing the flooding and rescues on the news for the people in and around Houston & Beaumont. I can't get this one image out of my mind of this young boy, maybe 11, talking and crying about how they lost everything again like they did with Harvey. I am so very sorry for all of you.

[wx98]

Heavy rain starting to stream back in through Port Arthur toward Beaumont.

[setxweathergal64]

I just did a quick model check and I don’t see anything major left. I’m feeling much better about things drying out now. Always a chance some storms fire tomorrow but nothing major.

A cousin sent this over:

Per The Weather Channel, Imelda is the #5 wettest system to hit the contiguous United States. Harvey is still #1

I believe it. I'm still in shock. I'm in Lumberton about a 10 min drive to beaumont but work in bmt. Luckily it sorta skirted around Lumberton for the most. My co worker stopped counting abondoned/stalled cars from yesterday... at 30 on her way in from the Pt. Arthur direction this morning. And I10 west bound is still closed. I work at one of the hospitals and we are barely open. Our ground floor/ER flooded so they moved it to another area. Just craziness.

[StormLogic]

Thanks to Imelda, I was able to conduct more research because it was literally in my backyard! lol

[setxweathergal64]

Heavy rain starting to stream back in through Port Arthur toward Beaumont.

Yep. We all just freaked out hearing our ff warnings going off.

[jabman98]

I asked my husband tonight if he thought the news in HOUSTON made us aware. He was adamant to say that Frank Billingsly last night said we needed to be on our toes. I didn’t feel that way, but I’m guessing it is because I read your posts and they are way more direct.

I generally watch Channel 2 (NBC Houston affiliate) as well. Frank Billingsly said a few days ago that Imelda could be sort of a "half Harvey" for the Houston area. The forecast was changing all the time so, as I think Jason said here, it was about "nowcasting." I didn't watch the 10 p.m. news Wed. night but I did see the 6 p.m. news and they were warning about flooding overnight and Thursday.

So, I get why people took their trash out today.

The recycling truck came by! We couldn't believe it.

[newtotex]

What makes this part of Texas )”(and the U.S) probe to these types of extreme rain-making storms? I’m talking about other than topography, like, what are the enviro factors that cause it?

Off of the top of my head, the only tropical system I can remember in the SE (the only other area I’m familiar with) is Hurricane Danny back in the 90’s, it dropped huge amount of rain in AL/MS/FL

But, in this area in the past 10-20 years they have had: Allison, Harvey and now Imelda

[Portastorm]

What makes this part of Texas )”(and the U.S) probe to these types of extreme rain-making storms? I’m talking about other than topography, like, what are the enviro factors that cause it?

Off of the top of my head, the only tropical system I can remember in the SE (the only other area I’m familiar with) is Hurricane Danny back in the 90’s, it dropped huge amount of rain in AL/MS/FL

But, in this area in the past 10-20 years they have had: Allison, Harvey and now Imelda

I can't find it right now but yesterday on Twitter there was an article link and it was written by some pro mets about this issue. It has to do with the inflow of Gulf moisture, Pacific moisture, and the unique geographical features of SE Texas which place it in this sort of triangle for worst case scenarios with tropical systems. We see this in Texas sometimes in the fall when a Pacific hurricane recurves and the moisture comes into the state, we have lower level Gulf inflow, and a cold front sagging through the state. The combination of those factors has created some major rain events in the past. In this case though, the "players" can be more intense depending on the system.

Perhaps someone else saw what I saw and can link to it.

[mpic]

Rescues still going on in the Splendora/Roman Forest/ apatton Village area off 59. Not to take away from the people who lost everything here yesterday, but it could have been much worse. Because we have been so dry ( 177 counties under a burn ban on Tuesday), Lake Conroe levels were well under normal. This rain brought it up to near normal which meant that they didn't have to open the dam. Most of the flooding here during Harvey was caused by necessary water release. So basically, the same weather that brought floodung saved many people FROM flooding. Ironic in a way.

[tomatkins]

What makes this part of Texas )”(and the U.S) probe to these types of extreme rain-making storms? I’m talking about other than topography, like, what are the enviro factors that cause it?

Off of the top of my head, the only tropical system I can remember in the SE (the only other area I’m familiar with) is Hurricane Danny back in the 90’s, it dropped huge amount of rain in AL/MS/FL

But, in this area in the past 10-20 years they have had: Allison, Harvey and now Imelda

I can't find it right now but yesterday on Twitter there was an article link and it was written by some pro mets about this issue. It has to do with the inflow of Gulf moisture, Pacific moisture, and the unique geographical features of SE Texas which place it in this sort of triangle for worst case scenarios with tropical systems. We see this in Texas sometimes in the fall when a Pacific hurricane recurves and the moisture comes into the state, we have lower level Gulf inflow, and a cold front sagging through the state. The combination of those factors has created some major rain events in the past. In this case though, the "players" can be more intense depending on the system.

Perhaps someone else saw what I saw and can link to it.

https://twitter.com/wxmanted/status/1175049404279115776

[Audreyadele]

I asked my husband tonight if he thought the news in HOUSTON made us aware. He was adamant to say that Frank Billingsly last night said we needed to be on our toes...
I generally watch Channel 2 (NBC Houston affiliate) as well. Frank Billingsly said a few days ago that Imelda could be sort of a "half Harvey" for the Houston area. The forecast was changing all the time so, as I think Jason said here, it was about "nowcasting." I didn't watch the 10 p.m. news Wed. night but I did see the 6 p.m. news and they were warning about flooding overnight and Thursday.

So, I get why people took their trash out today.

The recycling truck came by! We couldn't believe it.

My husband heard the same thing you did. I guess I’m perfect example that people are going to hear what they want to hear.

[Craters]

What makes this part of Texas )”(and the U.S) probe to these types of extreme rain-making storms? I’m talking about other than topography, like, what are the enviro factors that cause it?

Off of the top of my head, the only tropical system I can remember in the SE (the only other area I’m familiar with) is Hurricane Danny back in the 90’s, it dropped huge amount of rain in AL/MS/FL

But, in this area in the past 10-20 years they have had: Allison, Harvey and now Imelda

TS Claudette in 1979 dumped 42 inches of rain in 24 hours on Alvin, TX. That used to be the single-day rainfall record for the continental US, if I'm not mistaken, but after having gone through Harvey and Imelda, I'm not so sure anymore. I wasn't living in TX yet, but my wife was in Alvin, living in one of the few houses that didn't flood. She said that the city made improving drainage a major priority after Claudette. There are places in the city limits that have flooded since then and we've definitely had dicey times, but for the most part, it seems that they did a very good job. (Knock on wood and anything else that might help...)

[Hurricanehink]

What makes this part of Texas )”(and the U.S) probe to these types of extreme rain-making storms? I’m talking about other than topography, like, what are the enviro factors that cause it?

Off of the top of my head, the only tropical system I can remember in the SE (the only other area I’m familiar with) is Hurricane Danny back in the 90’s, it dropped huge amount of rain in AL/MS/FL

But, in this area in the past 10-20 years they have had: Allison, Harvey and now Imelda

TS Claudette in 1979 dumped 42 inches of rain in 24 hours on Alvin, TX. That used to be the single-day rainfall record for the continental US, if I'm not mistaken, but after having gone through Harvey and Imelda, I'm not so sure anymore. I wasn't living in TX yet, but my wife was in Alvin, living in one of the few houses that didn't flood. She said that the city made improving drainage a major priority after Claudette. There are places in the city limits that have flooded since then and we've definitely had dicey times, but for the most part, it seems that they did a very good job. (Knock on wood and anything else that might help...)

In April 2018, a mesoscale convective system dropped 49 inches of rain on Kauai (Hawaii) in a 24 hour period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Hawaii_floods

[austin06]

Wow. Didn’t expect so much flooding again. Poor Houston area. Hope things recover as quickly as possible. So sorry for the people who are having to deal with a flooding event again.

We are in the Austin area and flew to fl weds for a funeral. We are driving back Sunday and will be going through Houston area on Monday. We are wondering if we should anticipate rerouting around the area to the north and planning for the extra time that may take.

Any word or thoughts on travel through the area in the next few days? Sounds pretty troublesome with some of the major highways closed.

[mpic]

Wow. Didn’t expect so much flooding again. Poor Houston area. Hope things recover as quickly as possible. So sorry for the people who are having to deal with a flooding event again.

We are in the Austin area and flew to fl weds for a funeral. We are driving back Sunday and will be going through Houston area on Monday. We are wondering if we should anticipate rerouting around the area to the north and planning for the extra time that may take.

Any word or thoughts on travel through the area in the next few days? Sounds pretty troublesome with some of the major highways closed.

Check with drivetexas.org Interstate 10 has been a big problem and not sure if it was damaged but do know it was closed. All other main roads are passable by local reports. The area in question is between Winnie and the Louisiana state line as far as Texas is concerned.