ATL: JERRY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the
northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment. The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the
northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
morning. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it
moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased
and become better organized since the last advisory, and various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates
that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have
not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt
depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a
low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system
generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed
during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more
northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement
with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the
guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new
forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the
guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over
warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady
strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase
after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and
this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The
new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h,
and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted
that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the
time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and
St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday,
with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min
GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close
to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central
structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the
center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative
side of the intensity estimates.

The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving
over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some
very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main
limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near
term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in
northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which
seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is
likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously
difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous
wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the
various consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.
There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this
package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering
current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward
speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days,
taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward
Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a
weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a
new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble
mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little
change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued on
Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular
CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant.
Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there
is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system
just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a
few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by
synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV
jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should
remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its
shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current
intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly
conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for
the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some
increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of
Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models
predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is
likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13
kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In
3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest,
north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the
ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close
to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 53.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 53.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later
today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that
Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this
morning. The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature
with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the
cyclone. Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become
a hurricane later today. Afterward, the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on
the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early
period intensification. Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of
the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear
as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to
the north of Hispaniola. Therefore, a weakening trend is expected
through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is
slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but
above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the
HWRF.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14
kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track
philosophy. The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the
southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast
of Jerry through the 48 hour period. Around day 3, Jerry is likely
to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing
weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W
longitude. The official track forecast is based on a blend of the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY GETTING STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 55.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2
North, longitude 55.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a
similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday and be east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day
before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north
of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so
before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central
dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours.
Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb
flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt,
suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye
feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating
that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better
estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before
northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear
increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air
to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone.
Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing
into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week
as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude
trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not
changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect
the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A
large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to
steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the
next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the
north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast
follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the
then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday,
north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north-
northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the
northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger
mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast
is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on
the western side of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 56.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some
weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North,
longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening
found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb
flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is
estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is
substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from
satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a
day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12
to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the
forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or
295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as
it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then
north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the
ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous
one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus
model, or HCCA, track.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today,
but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Jerry appears to have stopped strengthening for now. The last
reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the
minimum pressure had risen slightly, and the satellite appearance
has become a little more ragged during the past several hours.
Radar images sent from the aircraft showed a well-defined inner
core, but there are no hints of an eye in geostationary satellite
images. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt based on the earlier
aircraft data. Both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will
be investigating Jerry later today, and that data should provide a
better assessment of its intensity and structure.

Jerry continues to move west-northwestward at a relatively quick
pace of 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about
another 24 hours as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to
its northeast. The ridge is expected to weaken and slide eastward
late this weekend in response to an eastward-moving trough over the
north Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Jerry to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then the
north late this weekend and early next week. A faster north-
northeastward motion is anticipated toward the end of the forecast
period as another trough approaches the system. The models remain
in very good agreement on the hurricane passing well to the north of
the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico late today and Saturday
and possibly moving near Bermuda in a little more than 4 days.
The only notable change this cycle is a slower northward motion from
days 3 to 5 to be in better agreement with the latest models.

The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. The global models
show a relatively favorable upper-level wind pattern over Jerry
during the next couple of days, but there is also a significant
amount of dry air around the cyclone. Although the shear could
increase early next week, some of the models show Jerry deepening,
likely due to baroclinic effects due to the nearby trough. There is
a very large spread in the intensity guidance ranging from SHIPS and
LGEM showing little change in strength to pronounced weakening shown
by HMON during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is
between those extremes and lies a little above the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 18.4N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and
turn northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is
forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening
possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA
show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum
flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values
near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb
overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite
imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the
far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend
of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt.

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast
is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in
the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the
aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to
impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken
or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a
little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent
weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much
track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 61.2 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80
mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990
mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed
near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present
in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite
seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the
last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed
is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane
tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at
16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and
feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track
changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion
should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few
days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a
weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough
will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how
quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has
only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't
changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this
advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might
not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm
water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the
cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range
intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it
is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives
Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to
change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the
latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous
one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight and pass well north of Puerto Rico
on Saturday. Jerry will then pass well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 62.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 62.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass well
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well
east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several
days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over
Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 3 inches, across the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg