ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Well now, it sure looks like we are all going to be doing some potential long nights burning the midnight oil with this potential over the course of the next 7-10 days.

This is shaping up to be quite the memorable tropical season and we look to close out September with the potential bang of seeing two more named storms for the month.

Slow season folks? There were even a few folks on the forum earlier in July through up into mid-August with the ridiculous season cancel posts. Huh?? I think not!! Mother Nature turned the ignition switch on in the tropics since mid-August and has never looked back!

We still have October to come. I think we will see several more named storms in the upcoming month. 2019 North Atlantic season has quickly become one of its most destructive and deadliest on record and may end up as the single deadliest with Dorian's catastrosphe on The Bahamas alone!

What a turn of events of this season. This just goes to show everyone NEVER, EVER underestimate the tropics, no matter the circimstances!!!

Agree with everything except the possibility of it ending up as the deadliest season. It will be hard to top the 1780 record.

Well, Abajan, I probably should have been a bit more specifc in saying that this 2019 could end up being the deadliest season in the modern era.

You went way way back on me concerning this

Thanks for reminding me of that. You are quite the historian in weather records worldwide.

[Jr0d]

:uarrow: I understand that more than anyone else Jlauderdal, which makes my point!! I just wish people would cease with the season cancel posts. They do not serve any purpose whatsoever!

Meanwhile we are going to be dealing with Karen for quite a while it appears with the loop back. These type of systems drive me crazy. Elena in 1985 does it for me. Jeanne was quite memorable in 2004 as well.
..

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

Looks like a lot of us will be losing sleep in the next week or two thanks to Karen.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: I understand that more than anyone else Jlauderdal, which makes my point!! I just wish people would cease with the season cancel posts. They do not serve any purpose whatsoever!

Meanwhile we are going to be dealing with Karen for quite a while it appears with the loop back. These type of systems drive me crazy. Elena in 1985 does it for me. Jeanne was quite memorable in 2004 as well.
..

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

I am afraid unfortunately that October may end up being just as active as this month has been. The Caribbean has yet to be even tapped yet and the thought of this really has me concerned down the road.

[GCANE]

I knew the Bermuda High would kick in soon but wow, the curve ball Euro threw at this one, I wasn't expecting.
Eyes on it.

[jlauderdal]

I knew the Bermuda High would kick in soon but wow, the curve ball Euro threw at this one, I wasn't expecting.
Eyes on it.

yes, but yesterday the modeling was picking up on the ridging, the euro ensembles are also showing a majority of the members making a hard left

[GCANE]

I knew the Bermuda High would kick in soon but wow, the curve ball Euro threw at this one, I wasn't expecting.
Eyes on it.

yes, but yesterday the modeling was picking up on the ridging, the euro ensembles are also showing a majority of the members making a hard left

Saw that, a couple are Cat 3 / 4 in the GOM.

[jlauderdal]

I knew the Bermuda High would kick in soon but wow, the curve ball Euro threw at this one, I wasn't expecting.
Eyes on it.

yes, but yesterday the modeling was picking up on the ridging, the euro ensembles are also showing a majority of the members making a hard left

Saw that, a couple are Cat 3 / 4 in the GOM.

the gulf is very much in play

[Jr0d]

I was not expecting it to become a tropical storm already, a few hours ago I was expecting PTC advisories today. However radar confirms we the low closed off.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_rada ... Lionel.php

I doubt we will get better model runs today as a result of having a closed low to input but I definately feel this will be a threat to Florida. I'm already thinking about what I need to buy this week to be stocked up for a storm.

[Hurricaneman]

The big worry to me is the Bahamas as the hurricane season is taking target practice on them but after that Florida and maybe Cuba will need to monitor the progress of Karen as this will most likely be more intense than modeled as most storms and hurricanes have been this year

[Frank2]

My guess perhaps a close call for Cape Hatteras but not Florida, the current zonal pattern of highs and troughs being very active the past 2 weeks, so any ridge building wil be short-lived...

[underthwx]

:uarrow: I understand that more than anyone else Jlauderdal, which makes my point!! I just wish people would cease with the season cancel posts. They do not serve any purpose whatsoever!

Meanwhile we are going to be dealing with Karen for quite a while it appears with the loop back. These type of systems drive me crazy. Elena in 1985 does it for me. Jeanne was quite memorable in 2004 as well.
..

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

Looks like a lot of us will be losing sleep in the next week or two thanks to Karen.

Alot of people losing sleep here in Texas after Imelda

[abajan]

:uarrow: I understand that more than anyone else Jlauderdal, which makes my point!! I just wish people would cease with the season cancel posts. They do not serve any purpose whatsoever!

Meanwhile we are going to be dealing with Karen for quite a while it appears with the loop back. These type of systems drive me crazy. Elena in 1985 does it for me. Jeanne was quite memorable in 2004 as well.
..

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

I am afraid unfortunately that October may end up being just as active as this month has been. The Caribbean has yet to be even tapped yet and the thought of this really has me concerned down the road.

Mark Sudduth has been warning about this for weeks now, in his videos.

[abajan]

Why isn't the island of Barbados on warning

I guess they figure a warning would be mostly after the fact and be too short-lived, as the winds should diminish here within the next few hours.

abajan - shouldn't we have at least had some sort of advisories? Not even flood watches/warnings have been isused (or did I miss them?)

There's currently a "weather information statement" on the BMS website. The official forecast for Barbados reads as follows:

Today: Cloudy to overcast and windy with moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms.

Tonight: Generally cloudy and windy with some pockets of light to moderate showers, periods of rain and possible isolated thunderstorms.

(Incidentally, I have no idea why part of the link to the weather info statement has "Planet of [the] Apes". The webmaster seems to have been a fan of that series. )

[northjaxpro]

The big worry to me is the Bahamas as the hurricane season is taking target practice on them but after that Florida and maybe Cuba will need to monitor the progress of Karen as this will most likely be more intense than modeled as most storms and hurricanes have been this year

Absolutely. I could not have said this any better!!

[USVIKimmie]

Anyone have any idea when Trinidad/Tobago had their last TS warning?

Also don’t forget there’s lots of real estate for TS Karen to cover before it ever gets to CONUS or GOM. There’s plenty of folks in the islands.

[northjaxpro]

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

I am afraid unfortunately that October may end up being just as active as this month has been. The Caribbean has yet to be even tapped yet and the thought of this really has me concerned down the road.

Mark Sudduth has been warning about this for weeks now, in his videos.

Yeah, Abajan I remembered seeing Suddath's video earlier and his prior ones on this subject. He sure was right! .

Just think, as active it has been the past month, we are about to get into October, in which we have seen some of our strongest tropical cyclones in the past moving out of the Caribbean and picked up by the mid latitude westerlies toward the CONUS, especially Florida. The Caribbean has yet to be tapped at all and with above average ssts and lowering wind shear down there, it spells nothing but a potential recipe of HUGE concerns doen the road.

[AutoPenalti]

I’d like to point out that despite this being a worry down the road, this is talking about a forecast error of about 800 miles at 240+ hours...

[GeneratorPower]

Interesting that the modeled track is one of very few ways for a storm to cross the islands and Puerto Rico without possibility of crossing the mountains of the Greater Antilles.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mpalmertwc/status/1175711205962461184

[underthwx]

After Dorian, I wish we could hit a 'season cancel' button. He was way more than enough trouble.

Unfortunately we have a long way to go and what may shape up to be a very active October.

I am afraid unfortunately that October may end up being just as active as this month has been. The Caribbean has yet to be even tapped yet and the thought of this really has me concerned down the road.

Mark Sudduth has been warning about this for weeks now, in his videos.

Hey Abajan, I just checked out Mark Sudduth video for the first time, he is very informative.