ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

That spot in the middle of Karen is a bit weird. Looks like an eye is forming but we know that can’t be...right?

I doubt it, but if it is, I may have to retract my "kidding."

[LarryWx]

So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/color37/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.color37.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/37h/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.37h.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.

given the last recon fix the dvorak position and this.. along with the cloud motion.. it wont make it to 28n.. looks like it has already turned east.

I'm guessing that's because it is getting stronger and thus raising the mean steering layer, which is more ENE than the lower level's NE. I noticed the 18Z Euro's initialization is stronger and it has her moving a little further east initially vs the 12Z run. Even so, the 18Z run weakens her considerably as she comes back east.

[Aric Dunn]

This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.

given the last recon fix the dvorak position and this.. along with the cloud motion.. it wont make it to 28n.. looks like it has already turned east.

I'm guessing that's because it is getting stronger and thus raising the mean steering layer, which is more ENE than the lower level's NE. I noticed the 18Z Euro's initialization is stronger and it has her moving a little further east vs the 12Z run.

models all take to 28.5.. so we will just have to see how this plays out... very interesting stuff the last couple days :p

[northjaxpro]

Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..

I guess some will keep on writing her off, butvshe keeps saying No, not yet LOL...

fwiw, that isn’t a pressure reading. Instead it’s a satellite estimate based on presentation. A buoy recorded 1006mb as the storm passed 30 miles to the south. Based on the recon pressure gradient this comes out to around 1004mb which is far more reasonable.

I was thinking that this was a satellite interpretated reading when I was checking a while ago as buoy reports closest to the center I saw were 5mb higher with relation the center. So 1004 mb is the true pressure. A bit deceiving at first glance. Heck, Karen's whole make-up has been maddening deceiving to this juncture trying to forecast her that is for sure.

Larry, I am with you. Stay in the middle of the road with this one for now.

[Tailspin]

[Aric Dunn]

well this is interesting...

is that what 50 to 60 kts ? lol of course some ambiguity with windsat. but even still likely 40kts plus

[GCANE]

Solid anti-cyclone / outflow

[Do_For_Love]

That spot in the middle of Karen is a bit weird. Looks like an eye is forming but we know that can’t be...right?

I could defintely be wrong, but it looks like on that Dvorak reading the center was east of the convection? And I think other posters had suggested that earlier, so if that's true, it shouldn't be, right? Definitely an odd "dimple" though.

[northjaxpro]

That spot in the middle of Karen is a bit weird. Looks like an eye is forming but we know that can’t be...right?

I could defintely be wrong, but it looks like on that Dvorak reading the center was east of the convection? And I think other posters had suggested that earlier, so if that's true, it shouldn't be, right? Definitely an odd "dimple" though.

I know Karen has been the ultimate deceiver thus far, but she really would be pulling one over on us all big-time if that was an eye-like feature.currently

[gatorcane]

Seems the dry air left behind by Jerry is less than what I expected looking at the WV loop. Looks moist between Karen and the Bahamas:

[GCANE]

That IR hole is indicative of the development of a warm core.
And it is pretty much right on the CoC.
Red X marks the CoC.
Black dot to the NW is the Warm Core.

[GCANE]

Stacked now surface to 700mb.
Big improvement from this morning.

[GCANE]

Up to 40 knts on AMSU est,

[AutoPenalti]

Stacked now surface to 700mb.
Big improvement from this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/uUHQiWg.gif

Still looks elongated.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont see this any strong weaking from now on so dont see this getting any stronger going be td by sat

[CaribJam]

Stacked now surface to 700mb.
Big improvement from this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/uUHQiWg.gif

Still looks elongated.

Does anyone have any idea of how Karen should look before/while making the loop or what impact, if any, Lorenzo will have on her?

[HDGator]

Karen should have died by now. Why didn't anyone tell her Bones was called out?
Why won't she dissipate like she should?
The models agree?

[wx98]

The hurricane center isn’t optimistic...

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26
Location: 27.8°N 62.1°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[HDGator]

The hurricane center isn’t optimistic...

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26
Location: 27.8°N 62.1°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Well, we have one day to see how this forecast works out.
I'm not doubting it; but Karen has appeared to exceed expectations.
We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[HDGator]

The hurricane center isn’t optimistic...

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26
Location: 27.8°N 62.1°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Karen continues to strengthen on IR but we'll see where she goes from here...
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=12818&y=5391