ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

The IR loop of cloud tops warming is kinda mesmerizing. Probably more flareups into D-min though.

[wxman57]

The center is still east of the convection. It's not getting stronger, it's weakening. Behaving just as predicted.

[Tailspin]

looked elongated and under ts intensity.

[GCANE]

Main Convection firing just SW of the CoC.
New dryline / trough convection firing NE of the CoC, much closer than before.

[GCANE]

Karen running into higher UL winds with a 500mb vort displaced to the SW.
Creates a strong directional shear.
At low levels, still can't converge TPW and CAPE air.
Convection looks to be washing out.
Jerry just kept too close.
Wobbled around too much and never kept a good solid due north track.
Karen maybe coming to an end.

[northjaxpro]

Karen is on her last gasp of air now. She's a fighter no doubt as she has fought off pending death notices for several days. However, I think she may be about to give up her ghost pretty soon.

Hey 57, this 2019 season has picked up so dramatically since mid August, we haven't seen Bones much at all to this point thus far. I guess you can finally bring him out soon to have him make his famed proclamation with this system very soon, likely within the next 24 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Karen might not make it to Saturday. Will be prudent though to keep track of her remnants as they track generally westward or SW under this eastern CONUS ridge. If she finds a sweet spot, look out.

[xironman]

Looks like a remnant low drifting SW.

[NDG]

I can honestly now say that I really doubt Karen is TS storm this morning, its circulation looks really elongated this morning. The swirl west of the deep unorganized convection is a dying MLC, the elongated LLC is east of the convection.
When the Euro speaks within 72 hrs I should listen more often

[toad strangler]

Great modeling on this one.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the vis loop this morning, it is remarkable how many swirly thingies there are... I am getting cross eyed looking at it. Clearly she is a storm of some kind; her persistence in this mangled state deserves a salute... Karen, you did it your way...

[Jr0d]

Karen is dead. I know the NHC will likely still call her a depression at 11am, but that is being g generous.

The models nailed the demise of Karen.

[blp]

Unfortunately, IMO you cannot kill this one just yet until it looses all its thunderstorms like Jerry. As long as it keeps firing off those small towers it keeps the engine running. I agree the models look to have it right but Karen is not going down just yet. According to the models this will get blitzed by the shear in next 24-48hrs once it starts moves west. The Euro I think has it too far north and kills it too soon. I don't see it progressing that far North. The GFS may have a better handle on this showing very little North movement just drifting east then changing directions west. So the Karen saga will continue..

[wxman57]

Bones has seen enough...

[Hurricane Jed]

...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME...


I think we’ve already reached that point

[LarryWx]

57 has done well with Karen. Nice job! The remnant low will still be interesting to track. The non threatening ones like this are the most enjoyable for me because of the lack of danger and yet they are just as interesting as far as "where will it go". Example: Harmless Fred from a number of years ago coming all the way across to the SE coast. Also, I predict there will still be flareups that will that will get increased attention when they occur.

[northjaxpro]

Ahh yes, we have not seen the good ole' Dr. BONES much this season. Well, now, he has come up to Sick Bay and made it official now.

T. S. Karen R.I.P. Sept 27, 2019.

[Emmett_Brown]

57 has done well with Karen. Nice job! The remnant low will still be interesting to track. The non threatening ones like this are the most enjoyable for me because of the lack of danger and yet they are just as interesting as far as "where will it go". Example: Harmless Fred from a number of years ago coming all the way across to the SE coast. Also, I predict there will still be flareups that will that will get increased attention when they occur.

Yeah, this is often where the fun starts. There could be days over the next week where someone gets to say "Karen has never looked better!" ... and then we can all debate about whether she should be reclassified, and bicker about bringing her back from the dead... these can be memorable moments, and a good pass time while we wait for the W Caribbean to heat up.

[jlauderdal]

Bones has seen enough...

Its official now

[Nimbus]

Dry air is allowing us to see the low level remnants, pressure gradient is moderating every hour without new convection. So the low level swirl is supposed to loop around to the southeast and then head for the gulf?