ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:23 pm

AL, 90, 2019092200, , BEST, 0, 105N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al712019 to al902019, SPAWNINVEST, al712019 to al902019,

Thread at Talkling Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120588
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:47 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:42 pm

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:16 am

The models are incredibly bullish on this. Does the Bermuda High build back in though?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:19 am

Giving me Isaac 2000 vibes given model bullishness and fairly late time of year for Cabo Verde storms. Might be an ACE builder if dry air doesn't decide to get tangled within.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:46 am

A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:58 am

1. Late in the cape verde season
2. The long wave pattern of this season

= probably aint going to effect the mainland united states most likely. I wouldn't count it out but as of right now I'd say 80/20 for not doing so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:43 am

For the next 5 days at least it looks like low shear, SSTs 27-29ish, could blow up fast. But yeah, looks pretty likely to pass well north of the 20/60 Hebert box. A lot can change by then though so it bear watching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby otowntiger » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:29 am

Hurrilurker wrote:For the next 5 days at least it looks like low shear, SSTs 27-29ish, could blow up fast. But yeah, looks pretty likely to pass well north of the 20/60 Hebert box. A lot can change by then though so it bear watching.

Yeah if it forms that soon and intensifies quickly- it’s almost certain to recurve pretty early- climo says that, actual dynamics may say something else at least initially. I’d give it a 20% chance of affecting land (besides the Cape Verdes. )
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:23 am

Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated
with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of
Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:02 am

Wow this thing isn't wasting any time at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:03 am

WTNT23 KNGU 220600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 16.5W TO 11.4N 24.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 16.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AT 15 TO 20 KT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 230600Z.//
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby Buck » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:20 am

Wow, really not wasting time. Will we see a TD/Lorenzo at 1100? 1700?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:49 am

A likely TC just off the African coast on or just after 9/22 with no model and not even a single ensemble member even getting it close to the Caribbean, much less the CONUS? I have to go with no more than a 1 in 50 chance for this to hit the CONUS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:18 pm

LarryWx wrote:A likely TC just off the African coast on or just after 9/22 with no model and not even a single ensemble member even getting it close to the Caribbean, much less the CONUS? I have to go with no more than a 1 in 50 chance for this to hit the CONUS.


Think i'll double-down and go with 1 in 100 to reach the CONUS, but sure is beautiful to look at! This thing is seriously sprawling yet with a tight COC :crazyeyes:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:26 pm

This has fish spinner written all over it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:30 pm

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a strong tropical wave over the far
eastern Atlantic. The associated thunderstorm activity continues
to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while
the system moves generally westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:59 pm

Looks like we'll see three storms at once fairly shortly--honestly didn't expect we'd see anything form this far east, especially something as strong as this could get.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:40 pm

I wonder if this could make history in other ways? Like easternmost hurricane or major hurricane in the tropical Atlantic?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:24 pm

Honestly this looks like a depression if not a tropical storm already. The turning looks pretty clear on visible imagery to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:02 pm

The models are consistent on something intense out of what would be Lorenzo. I'd be shocked if this doesn't become a major hurricane. Fortunately, there's no land in the way.
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