WPAC: MITAG - Post-Tropical

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WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAGGED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DE-COUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND ON A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM CMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARING NORTHWARD DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO 25-26C.
TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU
30 SOUTH OF KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA. BY TAU 48, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE SEA
OF JAPAN (SOJ) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. TY MITAG WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 IN THE
SOJ AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. SST VALUES WILL DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 24C, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THIS COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS LOW AND
THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 011706Z
AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, A 011221Z BYU HIRES
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT WITH
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL TROUGH,
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID DECAY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND PRODUCING STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 24-25C. TS 19W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT DATA.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TS 19W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND MAKES
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KOREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. 19W
WILL TRACK OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT
NEAR TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. SST VALUES WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 24C, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 48, THIS COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS LOW AND
THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), 182 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN
AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A SEMI-EXPOSED, RAGGED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DE-COUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT ASCAT DIRECT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
STRONG (GREATER THAN 30KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST
VALUES AT 25-26C ARE ALSO NON-CONDUCIVE. TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. .
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 06 SOUTH OF KUNSAN. AFTER TAU 18, IT WILL
EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE, CROSSING THE SOJ AND NORTHERN HONSHU, INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN
JUST SOUTH OF THE KURIL ISLANDS BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG VWS, LAND INTERACTION AND
COOLER SST, DROPPING TO 40KTS BY TAU 12 OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTH KOREA. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, DURING ETT IN THE SOJ, IT WILL
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD. BY TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN HONSHU WILL DEGRADE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO
35KTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER, BY TAU 72, AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO
DIFFERENTIATE ITS BROAD WIND FIELD FROM THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC
FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINIMAL SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS UP TO TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.//
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WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 38.0N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 38.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 39.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 132.6E.
03OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SHEARED CONVECTION AND INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE
OF THE LLCC BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 030615Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LATITUDE JET IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, CREATING A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
GOOD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (22-24 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 19W IS
TRACKING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS
19W WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ETT SHOULD COMPLETE AROUND TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
HONSHU AROUND TAU 12, TRACKING SOUTH OF MISAWA. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION UNTIL IT PASSES OVER JAPAN INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE INTENSITY
WILL MAINTAIN AT 40 KNOTS. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET.//
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[mrbagyo]

Better late than never - here's the Korea Radar Animation of Mitag's passage.
(This is my longest gif animation so far - 683 frames)